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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sandra who wrote (5663)	6/6/1998 4:50:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sandra, you mentioned the LEAP chart. Take a look at an interet sector chart: hamquist.com What do you think ? Internet stocks have amazed me up to this point. They have been given very liberal valuations based on the increase in internet traffic. I think that I heard that subscribers have been doubling every 3 months, but there has not been any study done on the amount of time that is spent on the Internet after the initial honeymoon euphoria period wears off. My own opinion about the Internet sector in general is that it will continue to surpass general market returns only as long as the general market trend is positive. Sergio

To: Sandra who wrote (5663)	6/6/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: James Wright	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

"Looking at leap, so far but the chart has been destroyed by daytraders. Seems they have signed up some new customers lately. Earnings are coming out soon, stock has been languishing also." Sandra -- Daytraders aren't much of a factor with LEAP, although they may come into play on Monday just before the earnings report is released on Tuesday or Wednesday. I was one of the original LEAPers, having bought at 2 1/8 just before the stock shot up to nearly 8 in just a few days <vbg>. I no longer own LEAP. However, the stock has A LOT of desperate holders who bought during the pump and dump scam as it was heading to 8, and who now are hoping for a positive earnings report next week in order to recover their losses. However, I don't believe the report will be positive (or at least, not positive enough) based on CEO Fred Smith's recent comment that he does not expect "consistent" earnings for another 2 to 3 quarters. Also, there has been very heavy insider selling over the last several weeks (which is surprising given that the stock is now trading below 3). Thus, I suspect the stock is going to dip below 2 next week when bad (or at least so so) earnings are reported and a lot of very frustrated holders head for the exits all at once. I like LEAP long term. In fact, I believe it will be at 10 or higher in a year. If you look at the fundamentals, they are nearly identical to THNK (same sectors, same revenues, sane revenues growth, and similar earnings through last quarter -- yet THNK is at 19 and LEAP is under 3). However, the smart play will be to buy LEAP after the next quarterly report comes out and the price (likely) drops, then hold long and be willing to take some frustrations along the way. Once it shows a few quarters with consistent earnings, its going to take off like a rocket and anyone who accumulates in the short term at under 2 will be very, very happy. At least, that's how I'm likely going to play it. Finally, if you look at the Yahoo thread for LEAP, you will see that it is extremely active and populated by a very naive, bitter and crass crowd. Over the last two months, the Yahoo thread has received around 9,000 posts (I first posted at 130 before the pump and dump scam!). Over time, I have learned that an extremely active Yahoo thread populated by naive investors who haven't a clue is a very bearish indicator. However, I suspect that many of those people will be washed out of LEAP next week. I hope this helps. -- Jim