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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nuke who wrote (19976)	6/6/1998 7:23:00 PM
From: P.M.Freedman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

nuke--You are really a great holder!!! Although only 200 shares, from $26 to $107 and then to $29, you should feel proud of yourself. What a ride! You'd better forget your 200 shares and leave them there until someone open your will. Or at least at next $107, you cash them in.

To: nuke who wrote (19976)	6/6/1998 7:33:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

nuke: getting in near the bottom of a cycle, and holding for 15 years, is an excellent strategy. You already did the hardest part, getting in near the bottom. If you don't want to spend a lot of time studying the industry continuously, then buy-and-hold is the best strategy. Don't trade unless you're going to follow things closely. AMAT is the industry leader and is the most likely to still be around in 15 years. There are actually many people who buy and hold through cycles. They don't tend to post much, because they've made their decisions already. Posters tend to be traders, or people who are thinking of changing their long-term positions. I'll probably post a lot, till I take a large long-term position (sometime this year). Then I'll just read the quarterly reports, post infrequently, and concentrate on sea kayacking in Baja.

To: nuke who wrote (19976)	6/6/1998 9:22:00 PM
From: John L.	Respond to of 70976

I think you would have been a happy man with a huge profit if you had bought AMAT 15 years ago and held on for the rides up and down. There is no guarantees of how the next 15 years will go, but as you go shopping there are more products using semiconductors every time that I look, bodes well for the equip companies. In the past after a down cycle in this business the upside has always been enormous, if you don't like the volatility wait until the stock has split once more before selling. I think 2 years is optimistic for the next up cycle split and 4 years is conservative unless a major catastrophy occurs messing up the economy. The past is not always a good indicator of the future, but I like my chances betting on AMAT over the next 5 years and then reassess the risk/reward. You did good in buying at a low point in the cycle, now you just have to avoid selling at a low point in the cycle. The only sellers at this point should be the short term traders looking to get out and jump back in if there is a further decline before a recovery occurs. Good Luck