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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (3530)	6/7/1998 1:52:00 AM
From: LK2	Respond to of 9256

*ODD TOPIC*>Anyone see another way to get at valuation here?< To understand value, you have to keep up with the times. Below is a perfect example of what I mean (when I was younger, I read science fiction; now I read the business section; which is more believable?) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> biz.yahoo.com Saturday June 6, 6:28 pm Eastern Time Women might mark millennium with "orgasm pill" LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Scientists are developing the first ''orgasm pill'' that will do for women what the anti-impotence pill Viagra does for men, the Sunday Times reported. It said the pill could be available in the year 2000 after initial trials among more than 500 women across Europe suggested the treatment was impressively effective. Pfizer Inc (PFE - news), the U.S. drug manufacturer that developed Viagra, was one of three companies racing to market the first orgasm pill for women, the paper said. It said studies had shown that between a third and a half of women never experience orgasms, leading scientists to believe they can repeat the success of Viagra with a pill for women. Viagra creates sexual pleasure by assisting the engorgement of blood vessels in the genitals, and the woman's pill would work in much the same way. ''The new female treatments stem from research indicating that the mechanics of sexual response in women are similar to that in men. Increased blood flow and the role of erectile tissue have been found to be important in women's enjoyment of love-making,'' the Sunday Times said. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Disclosure statement: I am currently a shareholder in PFE. PS: If the public only has to pay 100% of Maxtor's value for 66% of the Maxtor stock, that's probably a great deal for the public, by Wall Street standards. Regards, Larry

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (3530)	6/7/1998 3:11:00 AM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

>So what then would it be worth? If we model it relative to WDC then on a Price to Book basis we see a 5 year range running from 1.1 to 4.3 presently sitting at 2.8. That would give Maxtor a market cap somewhere in the 400-500 million range. On a price to sales basis WDC has a range from .12-.65, presently sitting at .34, in the middle. Maxtor had 1.4 billion in sales last year and once more that yields a market cap in the 400-500 million range. Well, let's see. WDC had a fully diluted 94 mln shares last time they had positive earnings. Add in 19.4 mln from the convertible zero deal, and you get 113.4 mln. Multiply by 15.5 and that's a market cap of $1.8 bln or thereabouts (this is sort of not kosher, as I'm adding in the converts below the strike price, but what the hell). Anyway, if you annualize the really bad Q1 rev number of 830 mln, you get a P/S of more than 0.5. >You mentioned treatment which might be afforded convertibles earlier. I would think they would be just thrilled to see fresh junior money coming in to fill up that 219 million dollar hole. Conversion has to be the last thing on their mind. Exactly. If they just move from pure junk to sorta junk, that would be a huge capital gain. Alas, it was late afternoon Friday, so broker never came through with a quote. >Anyone see another way to get at valuation here? Should Maxtor trade at a relative premium or a relative discount to WDC and why? Premium. All I know is, Maxtor has been eating WDC's lunch. It remains to be seen how the IBM deal figures into this, though.

To: Tom Simpson who wrote (3530)	6/8/1998 1:41:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9256

<The offering will be lead managed by Salomon Smith Barney, and co-managed by Hambrecht & Quist, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch & Co. and NationsBanc Montgomery Securities LLC.> I may be cynical, but I wonder if we will see a series of upgrades or speakers saying that things are looking better for the storage industry as they prepare to get buyers for the Maxtor offering? After all, there seems to be a question of things picking up going in to the end of the year anyway, and reports of lowered inventory at Compaq. Would be good timing to raise Quantum to a moderate buy, etc. Regards, Mark