To: Tom Klempay who wrote (6399 ) 6/7/1998 12:24:00 PM From: cm Respond to of 9343
Eyeball Counting... No Analysis... It's very easy in this young industry--the Portal Potty business (sorry, but I grow less enamored of the "portal" concept by the day)--to do an "analysis" that simply counts eyeballs, discounts growth, and fixes the players in some sort of mental concrete. Hardening of the categories aside though, sure, AOL and YHOO have terrific leads right now. This could have been said... and I'm sure was... a year ago. But, a year ago, without putting too fine a point on things, SEEK was absolutely dead in the water. No significant deals. No understanding of the big picture of e-commerce and direct marketing oppotunities. No community content. Nice technology, though. Not getting very close to profitablity. Did I mention the part about the really, really cool technology? So much has changed in this year... both in perceptions and substance. And I ain't gonna cover it all, again. Momentum players come and go. When they leave, they leave some angry folks who were late to the game. When those folks leave--which I believe most have--you have the unvarnished company and stock to research and evaluate without all the screaming, weeping or whooping. Just because momentum players leave though... I wouldn't say that's a negative indicator. I wouldn't say it's ANY kind of indicator other than the fact that, along with a lot of others, this stock is WELL off its highs... and settled into a news-less trough between earnings announcements. Sure, I want DEALS, ANNOUNCEMENTS, PARTNERSHIPS, new COMMUNITY PURCHASES, etc. But, I think SEEK is pretty cheap at these levels even without the NEXT BIG DEAL. And it's especially cheap if we have a break even quarter in Q3 (which is not out of the question) or a positive quarter by Q4. Best Regards, c m