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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3439)	6/7/1998 8:25:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

OK, that means that the first reference would be the correct one in terms of order of magnitude. Raise the revenue from $3Billion to $7 billion and that raises the average price to $47. Since that was an average including the smaller wafers, which still account for 1/3 of all wafer starts and presumably sell for less, that would put the 8 inch wafers between $50 and $75. Thanks. If the supply and demand will equalize themselves by mid to late 1999, prices could begin to firm a little before that. Thus the profit picture could begin to clear up by early to mid-1999. Since the stock tends to anticipate things about 6 months in advance, the stock could begin to recover any time, but probably not until after tax-loss selling time, meaning that the stock could be dead money for 3-6 months. On the other hand, you won't find any irrational exuberance on this board. No one even mentions your $100 figure anymore. For what its worth, my model still shows a maximum price in the year 2000 of $40-60 and a more likely price of $25-30. Even at $25 in two years the annual return is 36%. That's the best I can do for irrational exuberance. <G> Thanks for your help in clearing up the wafer start picture for me, Carl