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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FLC estimates cut... R&B Falcon Corp. (FLC) 25 3/8 -1 3/16: Lehman Brothers maintains "buy" rating on marine contract drilling, but lowers EPS estimates and price target due to lower pricing in the shallow jackup market and lower utilization in the barge drilling markets; believes stock still attractive based on 1999 estimates which includes the delivery of eight additional rigs sometime in 1999; reduces 1998 EPS to $1.72 and 1999 to $2.90 and lowers price target to $43 a share..... (From Briefing.com)

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: Bazmataz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

You're wrong.. Not to speak about fundies again, but you must decide for yourself how long this will last, or if it will last forever. The EASIEST thing for you, for all of us, to do is to sell immediately. The emotional relief you'll receive will be amazing. If you don't mind paying for it, by all means sell. But you must eval the fundies for yourself and ask why did you buy and what will make you sell. If you see no future, no growth, no "hope" (althopugh I hate that word with investing), by all means sell. If you see a possible turnaround in oil prices, a strong summer driving season, a future cold winter, OPEC cuts, blah blah blah, then hold or even buy more. Everything I've ever known about making money has told me it's almost time to buy. But I will openly state I'm not selling. I won't get called on CCs that I've written, and I'm okay with that. I will hold, and hold and hold. Yeah, I've bought and sold for trades, but core holdings are sticking in my portfolio until I retire. (I've got many years till that happens). Just my two cents, but if you're looking for emotional support, that's the best I can do. If you ask me, selling now means you've already lost. That's all I can say. Baz

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 3:00:00 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

RG -- I think we have to all acknowledge that -- right or wrong -- oil prices and oil service stock prices ARE tied to oil. Folks can rationalize this issue all day long, but the fact remains the two are positively linked. Plus, we have to acknowledge that the top tier oil service companies are all linked and will basically move as a group. Technical analysis is likely out the window when dealing with stocks that are linked intimately with a commodity that is linked to a cartel that is linked to politics...and so on. Forget trying to figure it out. My premise is that oil will go higher...someday. These companies are still making a shit load of money...today. The sector is as good a proxy for oil prices as any other. One consideration may be to simply buy the Fidelity Oil Service fund and not sweat it...or buy OSX options and not worry about individual stocks -- excpet maybe for exceptional circumstances (like MIND and FGII in my opinion). One morning we will wake up and oil will be $20 again and there will be peace in the valley. So sayeth The Dog.

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail	Respond to of 95453

Oil prices don't matter until they drop low enough that they do or until people are afraid they will drop low enough to matter. They probably still don't matter much in the deep drilling sector, because the scarcity of rigs and the long times involved in deep drilling contracts make it unlikely that anyone will walk away from their deep drilling project. But even here you run into a perverse situation because deep drillers like RIG or DO get compared to shallow drillers on a relative value basis and get trimmed. The safest place among the drillers would still be the deep drilling companies -- at least in terms of their underlying business prospects. Their stock prices may be more vulnerable. If you can just buy and hang on, the best values may be among the shallow and mixed shallow/deep drillers. Land drillers may have the best long-term potential, but I think they carry more downside risk as well. Though I think the service companies are relatively overvalued compared with drillers, they've been relatively stronger market performers. Among these TCMS is a standout. It may be the best value in the whole drilling/services sector. The longer oil prices stay low, the more dayrates are likely to weaken and the worse things will look for drilling stocks. This creates more compelling buying opportunities even though things look terrible. At the same time lower oil prices are sinking drilling stocks, they improve the supply & demand balance by making oil consumption more affordable. This increases the need for more drilling to replace reserves. Eventually, the oil prices will turn up and everything will look rosy again. Keeping a fair amount of powder dry and buying during the distress sale for the long-term bargain rather than the short-term move should be smart strategies. Baird

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: pz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron, I'd love to tell you that everything will be ok, but unfortunately it's out of our hands. OPEC are the idiots that caused this problem and they seem to be the only ones who can fix it. Suffering with ya. Paul

To: RGinPG who wrote (23634)	6/8/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

End this Gloom & Doom - this is a blatant buying opportunity ! Now we are in phase II; the quality companies like RIG, FGII, FLC VRC, MDCO are taking big hits... I understood the land drillers taking the hit first and foremost, leveraged high debt companies as well.Some profit taking was prudent. But now we're seeing the seismic and deep water drillers & service/equipment companies getting hit as well - way oversold ! The BIG difference between now and last Nov. - Dec. and March, is that many of these companies are in much better position to dramatically increase earnings due to acquisitions and/or ramping up capacity; or in the case or deep water drillers like FLC or RIG, they are that much closer to new (all ready contracted) deep rigs and drill ships coming on line. Also, these companies having proven to be profitable at these crude price levels - it's not as if these drillers are facing dramatic losses.If these stocks were worth their current prices 52 weeks ago at their prior lows, prior to the move upward; what are they worth today with new shipyards, new rigs, acquisitions of new rigs or even other companies, new pre-contracted deep rigs/drillships due to come on line...? In comparision of earnings potential last year to the present - to be this close to having much greater earnings capacity coming online and to be selling at these levels can only be interpreted as a buying opportunity! CDG a 7 times 99 reduced earnings estimates, FLC @ less than 8 times 99 EPS...are bargains. There are some discrepancies to take advantage of as well; some drillers have taken bigger hits than others...the points on MDCO and their transition to a much higher deepwater earnings penetration on the earlier post are well taken. In my opinion, CDG, MDCO, FLC, RIG, FGII, ESV, EVI, VRC, at these prices are solid buys with little logical downside... one could literally afford to wait for 18 - 36 months with some of these quality companies selling for 1/2 of prior highs and many for 1/3 of prior highs. A 2-3 bagger in 18 months is well worth the wait. Does anyone really think we will not see $16-$18 oil within that timeframe? The price -time factor / return ratio, is too good to pass up. Even if one is not quite comfortable with current prices being the bottom - we have to be pretty damn close.It looks like the time to set price targets on the individual stocks you like and let them come to you... CDG $37 , FGII $29, FLC $24 RIG $45 sure would be hard to pass up for even the most bearish. A few small caps like TCMS, OMNI, BTJ and maybe VSEIF thrown in and I'm looking forward to a very merry Christmas. Cliff's Drilling from current levels to $55 (where it was 6 damn weeks ago!) is starting to look like a 4th of July to Labor Day 50% play;! - if OPEC has some good news later this month. -gonna throw some healthy $ at this one, on margin to boot. How much downside to this one? - sub $30... I can still afford to hold untill eternity with that upside. With OPEC and Riyadh pact members - have the current numbers just been trial balloons? - would be smart to do so; test the waters and if these announced cuts don't do it - then buckle down to reality later this month; which is what I expect they will do. We are %5 +/- from THE bottom IMHO. OPEC will do what they ''NOW" know they HAVE to do; as the initial trial balloons were shot down rather quickly...