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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (28895)	6/9/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: mike iles	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Skeeter, I only follow the techs so I can't speak for all small caps. In the tech area I'd say what's been happening is typical as bull markets mature and approach senesence ($10 word I picked up from following Geron) ... narrowing leadership. I agree, a lot of the small caps have been whipped and are trading under 1X sales ... in fact, there's a few situations out there trading at less than cash (eg. General Magic a short 6 months ago). Which reflects the market's reaction to disappointing fundamentals. And we get these implosions from time to time as another erstwhile favourite pre-releases and gets hammered. I'd say we've been in a bear market for small cap techs for almost 2 years ... and yet the indices keep making new highs ... due to a few heavyweights like MSFT and DELL carrying the load. This is the best quality stuff and it hasn't cracked yet but likely will IMO as the 'inventory correction' story plays out. Then I think you'll see the good quality stuff down 40-50% from its peak ... Intel's almost there. When the big guys crack I think it will take out the speculative pockets such as the Internet stocks as well ... finis to the bull. What I don't have an opinion on is what happens to the small cap stuff that's already been beaten down ... does it hold here or gradually erode further? regards, Mike