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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaiS who wrote (9404)	6/9/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: John W. Andrews	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Growing a market theory...... When reading the CRUT ROth upgrade and listening to Leland on Monday reiterate the growing market theory ,it reminds me that this phenomena of growing a market occurs in many industries and almost could be a natural law in the business arena.. My pizza store in Wash D.C " just up form Bill's house" is usually hurt from new competition in the first 2-4 weeks of their operation. I then creep back up to previous levels. THe pizza market itself has been grown to a huge size by Dominos, Pizza Hut...now niche players like California Pizza Kitchen and Bertuccis to name a few....have a place to hang their hats...probably not possible back in the late 70's to early 80's.... Look at the internet growth....people bashing AOL and YHOO saying they won't make it..however the market for internet services has grown tremendously due to these behemoths in the industry.. A old partner of mine owned a major position of National MEdia which is the largest producer of INFOMERCIALS in the world...that industry had been grown tremendously and in fact many of the product sold through infomercial sell even better in the stores....tHe informercial softens the market for acceptance of the product and or services and then they sell very well in the standard retail distibution arena.. My point is the theory of growing a market seems to hold through many industries and I have no reason to believe that it will not work for VIvus. I was thinking to myself what would it take for me to short this stock at this time...well I could not think of a good reason other than people love to hate it....seems very dangerous at these levels .. THere was a post I read somewhere about the psychological addiction to a product or brand...which may explain why Muse refills have not been hurt as bad as new scripts...people especially older people are truly against change of any kind....once they find something that works they prefer to stick with it....especially when it comes to drugs....so if they try Viagra and it fails then move on to MUSE and get success...AT that point comanies like MCHM , ZONA, ICOS and whoever else has an oral product will not be able to wrestle Muse customers away.....only VIagra Customers....my bet that they will view all oral solutions as equal.....even better that Viagra is the oral Gold standard.... Just a few thought to chew on... Dr. Andrews

To: DaiS who wrote (9404)	6/10/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Sal Milani	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

DaiS, I am surprised that for those who find that Viagra does not work, only 1 in 5 would try MUSE. <<I think this (.5) is too optimistic for reasons already given by others on the thread. Let's say 20% of 84000 instead>> These are men who are concerned enough about their condition to see an MD. If they are willing to risk life and sight for a pill why would they turn their backs on MUSE ? Could you repeat the reasons for this value ? <<Of those it works for 10% stick to it (dropouts/cures?)>> The Vivus studies showed a 65% success rate with "one third of men reporting genital pain, causing some to stop". This would indicate a value of more than .4. How did you arrive at .1 ? Sal