Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clarksterh who wrote (5759)	6/9/1998 3:40:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

(shipments still high, bookings may be actually be the dicy one in getting to BTB of 0.70, agree BTB will be low for longer) Clark: RE: but shipments are already pretty depressed shippings (not sure if all of these reflect the error in counting last year - first few quarters are averages for the quarter so averages of averages!) Q4'96 1068 q1'97 1055 q2'97 1312 q3'97 1426 q4'97 1581 jan98 1458 feb98 1342 mar98 1343 apr98 1353 I think the above shows that while q3 and q4 were very strong for semi-equip shipments we have only fallen something like 10-15% in shipments. 15% is not that bad all things considered BUT look at bookings: q1'97 1161 q2'97 1427 q3'97 1543 q4'97 1589 jan98 1364 feb98 1215 mar98 1102 apr98 1074 so while shippings have fallen around 15%, bookings have fallen something greater than 50%. See Morgan was right - O where have all the orders gone! Thus bookings are big big time depressed. This means that revenues in the next few months are going to be falling hard. (assuming turns low). Again the only thing is that bookings may not fall below 850 and the BTB might hold because billings may fall faster (thus keeping the ratio high!)... But still I do not see why we can't have something like 1200 in sales and 850 in bookings at some point - or BTB of 0.70 within the next 3-4 months. --- RE: Two months of a BTB=0.75 gets you to the same order rate as one month of BTB=0.5 (assuming a very quick turnover). Lost me on this. Unless you mean one month of BTB of 0.5 plus another month of BTB of 1.0 (so average order rate is 75%) not sure how 2 months of orders could match the order rate of one month of lower orders when the numbers are different (0.75 vs. 0.50)! In the first case the order rate is 75%, in the 2nd case it is 50%.. so how are the order rates the same? ---- shane.