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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11356)6/10/1998 11:46:00 AM
From: waitwatchwander  Respond to of 152472
 
Gregg, Time to go fishing, or maybe you and Tero would enjoy a trip to the backlot!

biz.yahoo.com

Just in jest. Your persistence is not lost on me. nf



To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11356)6/10/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: David Andersen  Respond to of 152472
 
Subj: 3G Doors Open and Close as ITU Deadline Looms
From AOL

Date: 98-06-10 08:40:42 EDT
From: Horselist
To: ANDZIM

David:

would you please help me to post the following article on the SI Board. Thanks!

Howdy.

Excerpt from totaltele.com

3G Doors Open and Close as ITU Deadline Looms
By Jeremy Scott-Joynt
09-JUN-98
As the end-of-June deadline for air interface submissions to the International Telecom Union's IMT-2000 project looms, the political endgame is growing ever more stark.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ The hopes back in February that the Europe-Japan united front on wideband CDMA could lead to a single radio interface now look shakier by the day, thanks to the rapidly-coagulating issue of intellectual property.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ W-CDMA and wideband cdmaOne, the 3G successor to cdmaOne proposed by QualComm, look further apart than ever, unless crisis can concentrate the minds of those involved.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ But meanwhile another front - convergence between GSM and IS-136, or US TDMA - has suddenly blossomed into positive collaboration. Here, where little attention has been paid to date, there could be the seeds of a wider agreement.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ For months discussions have been going to and fro about trying to bring W-CDMA and wideband cdmaOne into a single package. Much of the impetus has come from NTT DoCoMo, which would prefer the two not to compete head-on in Asia, and reluctance has been evident from some among European vendors.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ But now the situation has been thrown into sharp relief by QualComm's announcement last week that not only would they not sign up to ETSI's IPR statement regarding W-CDMA - as has been known since and exchange of letters in April - but that the W-CDMA camp could forget any IPR access unless their standard was retailored to provide full backwards compatibility with cdmaOne and GSM.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "Any commercial application of code division multiple access will require our IPR," a QualComm spokesman said at the CommunicAsia show in Singapore last week. "Our contention is that W-CDMA cannot go forward without it."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ QualComm alleged that "certain European vendors" were determined to scupper cdmaOne at any costs. "Using standards bodies to create non-tariff barriers is no good for anyone," the spokesman said.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ DoCoMo certainly took the threat seriously. "There are problems with QualComm" despite hours of meetings to try to resolve the situation, one senior official said mournfully. "We're talking about other methods of implementing W-CDMA without QualComm's IPR."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Others among the founders of W-CDMA were less diplomatic. According to one Nokia official, the problem was a basic difference between the GSM culture of open standards on the one hand, and the total control exercised by QualComm on cdmaOne for reasons of IPR income on the other.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "It's volumes we're interested in," the official said. "We don't make money out of IPR and we don't expect to. We make it out of selling products."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ As for Ericsson Radio Systems - which some sources at QualComm have fingered as being at the root of Europe's perceived reluctance to engage seriously with cdmaOne - its director of industrial relations Asia Pacific, Dr Hakan Andersson, said: "If they are threatening, that's not the way to go. Standards are all about IPR."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ He added, ominously: "We have our own court battle with QualComm, because we believe they are infringing our IPR on the solution they found to soft handover."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Those with a foot in both camps, though - especially in the operator sector - are among the ones most annoyed by what many see as the politics holding up convergence.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "I hate the situation that's happening," said Jung Uck Seo, the president and ceo of Korea's biggest cdmaOne operator, SK Telecom. "We've decided to go with W-CDMA."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ SK, he said, had been working independently on 3G since 1993 and with DoCoMo since 1996, on the basis that common standards between Japan and Korea - the two biggest markets in Asia outside China - would create a de facto surge across the region.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "QualComm did a really great thing [by pioneering CDMA technology]," he said. "But they're asking too much in rights, when technology is more and more about common and broadly spread standards."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ That was why SK had chosen to head elsewhere for 3G. "QualComm dictates the standards. That's why the cdmaOne population doesn't grow," he went on.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Korean mobile firms were the biggest cdmaOne operators anywhere, he insisted, pointing to SK's choice as a warning shot to QualComm that they could be left out in the cold. "Without us, QualComm would be in disaster," he said.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ And that could be accentuated by the new close relationship between ETSI on the GSM side and the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium, for IS-136, on the other.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ The two have now agreed to converge their so-called "2.5G" work - the final stepping stone to full 3G - into a single solution.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ Ericsson's Andersson said this implied interoperability across the globe. Europe and Asia were GSM fiefdoms, he explained, whereas the Americas, North and South, were dominated by IS-136.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "This will work both in existing spectrum or in greenfield frequencies," he said.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ More importantly, perhaps, the new relationship could bring the emphasis to where it really counts, according to Scott Erickson, vice president of Lucent's wireless networks group Asia/Pacific.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ "The complexity in the telecoms world is at the network level, not the air interface," he said. "We're expecting a [3G world] interoperating on the network level, but with variance at the air interface level."
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ And according to the information on IS-136/GSM convergence provided by Ericsson, this interoperability is around the corner.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ The two are planning a network interlocating register (ILR), which will mean that service and billing information could roam smoothly between the GSM MAP network - the backbone of all GSM systems - and the IS-41 WIN network, which underlies the IS-136 world.
ÿÿÿÿÿÿ More to the point, though, IS-41 is also the network basis for cdmaOne, or IS-95. In other words, it now seems possible that IS-95 operators - should they so choose - could interoperate on the network level with W-CDMA, even if they still have difficult decisions to be made in air interface terms.




To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11356)6/10/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
Greg Sawtek just preanounced 4th quarter earnings(kinda weird). They staed that reduced demand for CDMA handsets is the reason. As far as I know Qcom is their only CDMA client. Do you think this will effect Qcom, or might it be a warning sign of trouble with Q.
Company Press Release

Sawtek Announces Outlook for the Remainder Of Fiscal Year 1998:

ORLANDO, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 10, 1998--Sawtek Inc. (Nasdaq:SAWS - news) announced its outlook for
the balance of its fiscal year that ends on September 30, 1998.

Steve Miller, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, ''I expect the Company to record strong financial results for the
quarter ending June 30, 1998. However, external factors outside the control of the Company indicate that it will be difficult for
the Company to post sequential growth in revenue and profits for the quarter ending September 30, 1998.''

The Company's customer diversity remains strong with our top four customers ranging from 12% to 20% of total revenue. We
believe we have a dominate market share for GSM and CDMA base station filters and are a major supplier in the emerging
CDMA handset filter market. We are actively pursuing new product opportunities, including wireless LAN and wireless local
loop applications and beginning to receive orders for our chemical sensor products.

As discussed in prior press releases and the Company's SEC filings, certain factors can and are affecting the Company's
business. The factors that are affecting the Company's outlook for the quarter ending September 30, 1998 include the
continued financial turmoil in South Korea and other Asian markets; currency fluctuations that have resulted in a strong dollar
particularly compared to the Japanese Yen which is affecting our ability to compete with Japanese suppliers of surface acoustic
wave devices; reduced prices on GSM base station filters due to the conversion to next generation products which are smaller,
less expensive surface mount filters; and lowered forecasts for CDMA filters for both base station and handset filters from
several of the Company's major customers. As a result, the Company has taken a number of steps to match production
capacity to anticipated customer demand including: i) elimination of its weekend work shifts, which are primarily staffed with
temporary employees, ii) reduction of certain general and administrative costs, and iii) other related cost saving measures.
While the Company believes these measures will reduce costs, the projected lower revenue will result in lower profits for the
quarter ending September 30, 1998.

Sawtek Inc. is a leading supplier of electronic signal processing components based on surface acoustic wave (''SAW'')
technology. The Company's primary focus is custom designed, high-performance bandpass filters, resonators, delay lines,
oscillators and SAW-based subsystems. These products are used in a wide array of microwave and radio frequency systems
such as CDMA and GSM-based digital telephone systems, digital microwave radios, wireless local area networks, cable
television, defense and satellite systems, and chemical sensors.

Sawtek trades on the Nasdaq National Market under the symbol ''SAWS.''

Forward-looking statements in this release are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation
Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, such as statements
of the Company's plans, objectives, expectations and intentions. The cautionary statements made in this release should be read
as being applicable to all related forward-looking statements wherever they appear in this release.

Statements containing terms such as ''believes,'' ''does not believe,'' ''no reason to believe,'' ''expect,'' ''plans,'' ''projected,''
''intends,'' ''estimates'' or ''anticipates'' are considered to contain uncertainty and are forward-looking statements. The
Company's actual results could differ materially from those discussed. Factors that could cause or contribute to such
differences include the following: the Company's dependence on continuing demand for wireless communications services and
CDMA technology, particularly CDMA handset units; economic turmoil in South Korea and other Asia-Pacific countries (as
experienced during the past several quarters) or other geographic areas of the world; fluctuations in the value of foreign
currency; pressure on gross profit margins due to competition, change in product mix and other factors; dependence on a
limited number of customers, which are expected to continue to account for a high percentage of the Company's future net
sales; fluctuations in the Company's quarterly results and backlog which may be caused by such factors as product mix
changes, price competition, availability of manufacturing capacity, and customer order cancellation or rescheduling; the
Company's dependence on its timely development of new or improved SAW products (such as SAW chemical sensors) to
meet changing market needs; the risk of competing technologies which could replace or reduce the use of S



To: Gregg Powers who wrote (11356)6/12/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
 
Gregg,

Check out the Nokia earnings report and tell me if you can find any significant licensing revenue. I couldn't. Companies that created GSM are asking extremely low licensing fees from the manufacturers. All the articles comparing GSM and CDMA I'm familiar with have pointed out the high fees of CDMA as one major factor slowing down CDMA development. This thread is the only place where I've ever seen anyone claiming that GSM licensing fees are high. Several people have now stated that GSM, of course, has sky high licensing fees, everybody knows that...
But how come the revenue streams of Nokia and Ericsson show negligibly low licensing income? Even though GSM already has over 100 million subscribers and there are over 20 companies selling GSM phones? Even if the licensing income is spread to six different companies, how come it looks like GSM is truly an open standard not hellbent to squeezing manufacturers for everything they've got?
Is this part of the worldwide conspiracy to dupe all the industry experts into believing that GSM is much more reasonable towards manufacturers than CDMA? Are Nokia and Ericsson hiding their massive licensing income somehow? I guess we have to wait for "X-Files: Fight the Future" for the answers.
Meanwhile, Cahners In-Stat Group has yet another projection of worldwide standard developments up to 2001.

gsmdata.com European Subscribers

It's interesting to note that in 2001 USA and the world outside Japan and Europe will have more analog subscribers than CDMA subscribers. The figures also give a good overall picture of how the US market is lagging Western Europe by five years in moving from analog to digital standards. They also show the splintering of US digital market into half a dozen competing standards. This is about fifth such projection I've seen in a couple of months and they all show GSM at 50% of global market share between 2001-2003, depending on the survey.
It all gives a compelling rationale for European, Japanese and Korean companies to back strongly W-CDMA. The follow-up for GSM will be immensely important, because GSM is the only standard capable of spawning a worldwide 3G solution. Your attempts to somehow credit W-CDMA to Ericsson don't change the fact that NTT and Nokia are just as important for the standard.
The argument that Qualcomm must have a strong position or there wouldn't be a huge fight over W-CDMA ignores one salient point.
There isn't any huge fight over W-CDMA. I haven't seen one word about Qualcomm in European press covering the W-CDMA development. The test equipment is being built in Japan and Europe, working prototypes of handsets are undergoing finetuning. Just because Qualcomm gives dramatic press releases doesn't mean that the work on W-CDMA has slowed one bit. Japanese may still want to negotiate a compromise and they may be talking to Qualcomm to avert a court fight. But nobody has said anything about stopping W-CDMA because Qualcomm somehow believes its IPR's can't be circumvented. If Qualcomm thinks it can get an injunction to stop W-CDMA deployment in Europe and Japan, it can always try its luck in European and Japanese courts. Welcome! Now that Japanese GDP is shrinking by 5% annualized rate, just how willing do you suppose USA is to start a trade war over some 4 Billion dollar company's wild claims?
Anyway, I think that W-CDMA is not Qualcomm's biggest worry right now. It is now facing a task of redoing its entire product line of aging models while keeping the sales going and predicting the inventory situation correctly. This is the hardest part of being a handset company, not designing phones. I keep hearing comments about how stores are not stocking Qualcomm phones and the ads are not reaching buyers. One hot model can be fatal to any high-tech company if it kills the sales of existing products.
You could be in business five years ago with only one decent model, initial quality problems and big inventories. That was Nokia in 1993. My objection is not about small companies... it's about small companies in maturing markets. Nokia is redoing its entire product line from cheap 5100 to high-end 8810 and 9110 between February 1998 and September 1998. That's six entirely new models in half a year; entry level model, mid-price model, dual band models, luxury model, smartphone. Simultaneously in all continents; new display technology, new battery technology, new software, new materials, new designs, new features. This is the benchmark now. Models older than 18 months are history. By introducing the phones simultaneously throughout the world the regional risk is minimized.
Now that Asia is crumbling the risk of investing in small high tech companies with big sales forecasts in Korea and Japan is bigger than ever. The fast product cycle paradigm is surfacing right now, leaving companies unable to deliver rapid, massive redesigns and wide product ranges vulnerable. That's the ultimate benfit of GSM's high global market share: it gives its proponents the size and reach that is becoming as crucial as it is in the microchip, PC or operating system markets.

regards,
Tero