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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Diggle who wrote (2583)	6/10/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

Brian, First a little something about myself for those who don't know me and have the courtesy to ask before they run their mouth. I trade primarily based on technical analysis so the comment about my MBA isn't even relevant. I know better than anybody that stock prices don't move based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model or any other theoretical academic model. With regards to your question about my position in Adaptec, I'm long at an average price of 15 5/8. Adaptec is under pressure because the entire technology sector is under pressure and any company that has anything to do with hard drives is under even more pressure than the technology sector in general. There are two kinds of risk in the stock market: company specific risk and market risk. I believe that Adaptec is going down almost entirely because of the market and not because of a serious deterioration in its fundamentals. Technical analysis may win in the short term but fundamentals win in the long term every time. IF the fundamentals remain as they are now, I can almost guarantee that the stock will trade much higher when the fear evaporates. Adaptec is a fine company with fine products and will eventually come back into favor as an investment. All the baloney that you read on this thread about them not having good products and being near bankruptcy is just that - baloney. It's very easy for people to come out of the woodwork when a stock is going down and criticize a company's products and business model. The fact of the matter is that Adaptec's management has done a superb job under very difficult business conditions. They have made money every quarter in the past 4 years (that's as far back as I researched) while other companies with similar product lines have lost hundreds of millions of dollars in the past three quarters. If you are willing to ride out this storm, I think you will do very well holding the stock here and even buying from all the short term traders that panic out of the stock. Contrary to the opinions of some on this thread, rational thinking and keeping a cool head will keep you out of trouble during times of market turmoil.