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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Floyd who wrote (23874)	6/11/1998 6:59:00 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Comparing OPEC survival to the likelihood of civilization or the human race surviving forever is a bit much. I agree that longer term -- 10 years out -- many studies show increasing energy costs. But there are many factors which favor this being a long recovery in oil prices. And I do not know how long "long" is, one year or three? 1. Many oil producers need the cash. Some nonOPEC will not agree to anything and some OPEC will agree to anything and cheat. 2. Oil is cheaper to find and produce. 3. Demand is down due to Asia and weather. 4. Stockpiles are up by around 50 million barrels over recent historical levels. Would take a year to work it off, if OPEC could agree to cut production 200,000 bbl/day LOWER than demand. Civilization dies as I know it, if I lose all my investment money. So far I have "only" lost a bit more than last year's profit, and I feel fortunate (but only when I am not feeling too pissed off). My stomach churns as much as those of you on margin, and I wish you recovery. This appears to make no sense, but there is the doubt that it does. The trouble is I (and probably you) have seen other stocks decline and say that "this makes no sense, the market is stupid", only to be proven wrong. The lesson for me is not to fear questioning basic assumptions. I still believe in the fundamentals of this sector but have changed my view of the potential returns over the next 6 months. stockpile data: oil-gasoline.com