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To: Grommit who wrote (23880)	6/11/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Has anyone else noticed that just about all the energy/service companys hit their lows...exactly one year ago. Coincidence?? Now we have Asia...worldwide glut...but it seems rather strange that so many companys were at their low exactly one year ago...specifically 6/10-6/12...Check the dates for yourself. Everything goes in cycles...no matter what segment of the market. Is it possible that history will again repeat itself....or simply wishful thinking on my part. I vividly remember following the prices on MDCO and SESI in June '97 and wondering if we'd ever hit bottom. If I'm not mistaken, no one wanted tech stocks either. All exactly a year ago this week. Obviously, fundamentals are diferent this year...but if OPEC were to actually surprize the markets with credible cuts...history could easily repeat itself. If crude were to rebound to $17-18....where would these stocks be trading? Wishful thinking? In June '97...no one expected the rise we got though September.... Just my thoughts Dave

To: Grommit who wrote (23880)	6/12/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Robert Floyd	Respond to of 95453

>>Comparing OPEC survival to the likelihood of civilization or the human race surviving forever is a bit much.<< I don't believe that I was making a comparison. I was simply illustrating that these types of statements were easy to say, since all things must come to an end. Knowing details of when and how is the tricky part. Economics instructors are famous for making low risk generalizations which may take years, or even generations to come to prove out. When times get hard, people come out of the woodwork making various broad statements as if they contain some important wisdom. IMHO, when the oil sector stocks are in a downturn, referring to an economics instructor's making a broad statement about cartels is not important wisdom.