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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald Paul who wrote (3276)	6/11/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 10309

Paul: I own both WIND and CHKPF (in the red at the momment). On fundamentals the market and both companies have reason to fear Microsoft. MSFT has been know to make strategic overtures to companies and if they don't dance MSFT picks a lower tier partner and infuses capital resources to compete with the market leaders. CE is a strategic product for MSFT. They will throw a ton of money at it to make it succeed. WIND has to remain focused on their customers needs and keep their products the solution of choice. If they stumble i.e. like Lotus (who made the mistake of keying in with IBM's OS2 vs. MSFT windows 3.0, I believe due to MSFT's competing in spreadsheet and workprocessing), Novel (CEO obsessed with competing on the desktop vs. keeping resources focused on Network software) and Netscape (their mistake was not realizing MSFT would not only give the browser away but also add strategic tie ins on office software products with business customers (the gorrilla crush). Lets hope WIND can weather the storm. A critical problem with a low stock price (excluding the critical drop in our net worth) is the limiting ability of a company to use it as currency for key acquisitions. I've rambled enough, have to go. Tim Until we see both companies succeed against the gorrilla

To: Ronald Paul who wrote (3276)	6/12/1998 7:50:00 AM
From: Mike Milde	Respond to of 10309

Yeah, it is almost comical to think of Microsoft competing in the embedded systems market. Definitely not Microsoft's cup of tea. I think the institutional investors see Microsoft and Wind River as "just computer companies". Earnings will show the real truth, but the perception is getting hurt right now by Microsoft. That will pass. Is there honestly a single embedded systems developer on this thread that doesn't get a good chuckle out of the idea of buying a Microsoft product for their next embedded systems development project?? Mike

To: Ronald Paul who wrote (3276)	6/12/1998 11:52:00 AM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

There are at leaset two other reasons WIND is declining. First, the tech market is going down, lowering relative merits of all tech stocks. Secondly, WIND's growth rate has declined now to approximate its trailing P/E. Till now, the P/E has always exceeded the bottom line growth rate which itself was quite a bit higher. Even though we may see even lower prices, IMO, both these factors make WIND a better buy now than anytime in the last two years or more. The tech market outlook is cyclical. And the declining ratio of earnings growth to P/E is a function of the delay in I2O royalties. As I2O starts to come in (not to mention unannounced royalty bearing wins), top line growth will continue its stellar performance, while net margins will improve. Hopefully, we'll benefit not only from 40+% top line growth, but also from 50+% bottom line growth going forward, and a consequent upward reevaluation of forward P/E. Admittedly, though I am not well versed in TA, I can't imagine that WIND's chart looks good. Again, the lower the stock goes, the better the buying opportunity as long as the company continues performing. I don't know of any factors to indicate that it won't.