Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (20188)	6/11/1998 7:55:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

kid, I could not agree more. As I've often said, an extremely weak Relative Strength at some point turns into value. We are at that point. Re:this downturn is u-shaped This downturn is the second part of the recent spending pullback in the semis so to be more precise, we are currently experiencing the second bottom of a W-shaped downturn. BK

To: jtechkid who wrote (20188)	6/11/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid: re: "-this downturn is u-shaped and we areat the bottom " I'm still not following you. A "u" shape has 3 parts: first down, then flat for a while, then up. A brief glance at the stock chart tells you we're currently in a vertically down phase. I see no flat part, yet. How do you know we're at the bottom? The only reason to be buying now is if you think the downturn will be V-shaped, without a flat consolidation phase at the bottom. Maybe, if we reach the 12/97 lows, and hold, on heavy volume, you can make an argument that we've formed a triple bottom (now, 1/98, and 12/97). But, seeing how easily INTC, KLIC, and KLAC have slid below their 12/97 lows, I'd be surprised if AMAT holds. I may take a modest position in AMAT if it doesn't break the 12/97 lows this month. Also, re: " now we are 2year lows". What is at 2-year lows? If you're referring to AMAT (this is the AMAT thread, that's the only context I have to go on) then what is at a 2-year low? P/S, P/E, P/B are all still far above the 1996 lows. I've had a bad habit of buying (and selling) too early. This time around, I'm going to wait till I'm sure it's the right time to buy, reviewing my "bottom indicators", and then force myself to wait a bit longer. If I'm going to miss the bottom, I'd rather have it behind me when I buy.