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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (5803)6/12/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: Walter High  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 164684
 
Colleagues:

I would like to return to a different aspect of this discussion since none of us really knows where the stock price is going anyway. My interest is in the vilification that is constantly heaped upon the founders of Amazon by several people on this thread. I must preface my remarks by saying I have no personal knowledge of the Amazon founders nor their motives, but I feel like much of the vilification comes from the frustration of constantly being wrong about the stock price.

Can someone tell me why the following potential interpretation of Amazon is off-base? Amazon was founded by people who had a vision that e-commerce was going to be the wave of the future and that the potential for sales ran easily into the billions of dollars. They began with a vision of an online bookstore, but quickly realized that this concept could be expanded into a virtual online mall. The key to being successful was gaining people's attention and market share.

The founders realized that competition would be tough in this arena and that cutthroat "streetfighting" would be the only way to survive. They knew they would have to endure years of loses to build marketshare, but if they were successful, it would pay off in billions for themselves and their investors. The only possible way to win this battle is to drive the competition out and be the last one standing, even if one ends up considerably bloodied.

The founders developed a very careful business plan which is closely guarded. The most important factor here is to keep the competition unaware of the next move. By constantly surprising the competitors and making unexpected moves, advantage is gained. Financing at exorbitant rates may be necessary, but the other alternative is to lose the battle.

The goal is to dominate the market, become profitable, and win big for the investors. It is understood that it may take five to ten years to do so, but the payoff is worth it. Meanwhile, you keep your mouth shut, endure the criticism, and hope you win.

So, if this is the plan and it works (i.e., AMZN wins the battle, becomes profitable, and validates its stock price eventually), are the founders no longer morally bankrupt as has been suggested on this thread? Is my scenario above totally without merit? I would be interested to here from those of you who see charlatans at AMZN who are only out to take your money and let it all collapse. What evidence do we have that they are not really serious?

Walter High



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (5803)6/12/1998 3:12:00 PM
From: gbh  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
I just went long against the box. Any thoughts for the balance of the day?

Yes, cover the short and stay long. :) Sorry, just my stupid attempt at humor.

Either try to pick spots and try and trade it (either way; sell the long or buy more long), or wait for what looks like the REAL pullback. The real pullback could take awhile (3-6 months or longer), so you may want to try your hand at trading the mo.

If you can eek out a few points this way, you will start to feel much better. I just made 3/4 point on the 61 to 60 pullback. If you do this, make sure if it moves against you, to get out quick. A few 1/4 losses can easily be made up with this stock, in either direction.

Don't let emotion keep you from going long either. Good luck. We both need it.

Gary



To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (5803)6/13/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
liabilities of the Company's subsidiaries,
including trade payables. As of March 31, 1998,
as adjusted for the offering of the Original
Notes and application of the net proceeds
therefrom, the Company would have had
approximately $2.4 million of indebtedness
outstanding (other than the Notes), all of
which would have been secured indebtedness. See
"Risk Factors -- Substantial Indebtedness;
Ability to Service Debt."

CERTAIN COVENANTS............. The Indenture contains certain covenants that,
among other things, limit the ability of the
Company and its Restricted Subsidiaries (as
defined herein) to incur indebtedness, pay
dividends, prepay subordinated indebtedness,
repurchase capital stock, make investments,
create liens, engage in transactions with
stockholders and affiliates, sell assets and
engage in mergers and consolidations. However,
these limitations are subject to a number of
important qualifications and exceptions. See
"Description of the Exchange Notes --
Covenants."

ORIGINAL ISSUE DISCOUNT....... The Exchange Notes will be treated as a
continuation of the Original Notes for U.S.
federal income tax purposes. The Original Notes
were issued with original issue discount. For
U.S. federal income tax purposes, Holders of
the Notes are required to include the amount of
original issue discount in income in advance of
receipt of cash to which the income is
attributable. See "Certain Federal Income Tax
Consequences."

10

RISK FACTORS

An investment in the Exchange Notes offered hereby involves a high degree of risk. The following risk factors, together with the other information set forth in this Prospectus, should be considered carefully before purchasing the Exchange Notes offered hereby. The term "Note" or "Notes" includes the Original Notes and the Exchange Notes.

LIMITED OPERATING HISTORY; ACCUMULATED DEFICIT; ANTICIPATED LOSSES

The Company was incorporated in July 1994 and commenced offering products for sale on its Web site in July 1995. Accordingly, the Company has a limited operating history on which to base an evaluation of its business and prospects. The Company's prospects must be considered in light of the risks, expenses and difficulties frequently encountered by companies in their early stage of development, particularly companies in new and rapidly evolving markets such as online commerce. Such risks for the Company include, but are not limited to, an evolving and unpredictable business model and the management of growth. To address these risks, the Company must, among other things, maintain and increase its customer base, implement and successfully execute its business and marketing strategy and its expansion into new product and geographic markets, continue to develop and upgrade its technology and transaction-processing systems, improve its Web site, provide superior customer service and order fulfillment, respond to competitive developments and attract, retain and motivate qualified personnel. There can be no assurance that the Company will be successful in addressing such risks, and the failure to do so could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations.

Since inception, the Company has incurred significant losses, and as of March 31, 1998 had an accumulated deficit of $42.9 million. The Company believes that its success will depend in large part on its ability to (i) extend its brand position, (ii) provide its customers with outstanding value and a superior shopping experience and (iii) achieve sufficient sales volume to realize economies of scale. Accordingly, the Company intends to continue to invest heavily in marketing and promotion, product development and technology and operating infrastructure development. The Company also offers attractive pricing programs, which have reduced its gross margins. Because the Company has relatively low product gross margins, achieving profitability given planned investment levels depends on the Company's ability to generate and sustain substantially increased revenue levels. As a result, the Company believes that it will continue to incur substantial operating losses for the foreseeable future and that the rate at which such losses will be incurred may increase significantly from current levels. In addition, expenses associated with the amortization of intangibles resulting from the Company's recent acquisitions and interest expenses related to the Original Notes will further affect the Company's net loss. Although the Company has experienced significant revenue growth in recent periods, such growth rates are not sustainable and will decrease in the future. In view of the rapidly evolving nature of the Company's business and its limited operating history, the Company believes that period-to-period comparisons of its operating results, including the Company's gross profit and operating expenses as a percentage of net sales, are not necessarily meaningful and should not be relied on as an indication of future performance.

UNPREDICTABILITY OF FUTURE REVENUES; POTENTIAL FLUCTUATIONS IN QUARTERLY OPERATING RESULTS; SEASONALITY

As a result of the Company's limited operating history and the emerging nature of the markets in which it competes, the Company is unable to accurately forecast its revenues. The Company's current and future expense levels are based largely on its investment plans and estimates of future revenues and are to a large extent fixed. Sales and operating results generally depend on the volume of, timing of and ability to fulfill orders received, which are difficult to forecast. The Company may be unable to adjust spending in a timely manner to compensate for any unexpected revenue shortfall. Accordingly, any significant shortfall in revenues in relation to the Company's planned expenditures would have an immediate adverse effect on the Company's business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations. Further, as a strategic response to changes in the competitive environment, the Company may from time to time make certain pricing, service, marketing or acquisition decisions that could have a material adverse effect on its business, prospects, financial condition

11

and results of operations. For example, the Company has agreed in certain of its promotional arrangements with Internet aggregators to make significant fixed payments. There can be no assurance that these arrangements will generate adequate revenues to cover the associated expenditures, and any significant shortfall could have a material adverse effect on the Company's financial condition and results of operations.

The Company expects to experience significant fluctuations in its future quarterly operating results due to a variety of factors, many of which are outside the Company's control. Factors that may adversely affect the Company's quarterly operating results include (i) the Company's ability to retain existing customers, attract new customers at a steady rate and maintain customer satisfaction, (ii) the Company's ability to acquire product, to maintain appropriate inventory levels and to manage fulfillment operations, (iii) the Company's ability to maintain gross margins in its existing business and in future product lines and markets, (iv) the development, announcement or introduction of new sites, services and products by the Company and its competitors, (v) price competition or higher wholesale prices in the industry, (vi) the level of use of the Internet and online services and increasing consumer acceptance of the Internet and other online services for the purchase of consumer products such as those offered by the Company, (vii) the Company's ability to upgrade and develop its systems and infrastructure, (viii) the Company's ability to attract new personnel in a timely and effective manner, (ix) the level of traffic on the Company's Web site, (x) the Company's ability to manage effectively its development of new business segments and markets, (xi) the Company's ability to successfully manage the integration of operations and technology of acquisitions or other business combinations, (xii) technical difficulties, system downtime or Internet brownouts, (xiii) the amount and timing of operating costs and capital expenditures relating to expansion of the Company's business, operations and infrastructure, (xiv) the number of popular books introduced during the period, (xv) the level of merchandise returns experienced by the Company, (xvi) governmental regulation and taxation policies, (xvii) disruptions in service by common carriers due to strikes or otherwise, and (xviii) general economic conditions and economic conditions specific to the Internet, online commerce and the book industry.

The Company expects that it will experience seasonality in its business, reflecting a combination of seasonal fluctuations in Internet usage and traditional retail seasonality patterns. Internet usage and the rate of Internet growth may be expected to decline during the summer. Further, sales in the traditional retail book industry are generally significantly higher in the fourth calendar quarter of each year.

Due to the foregoing factors, in one or more future quarters the Company's operating results may fall below the expectations of securities analysts or investors. In such event, the trading price of the Company's securities would likely be materially adversely affected.

COMPETITION

The online commerce market, particularly over the Web, is new, rapidly evolving and intensely competitive. In addition, the retail book and music industries are intensely competitive. The Company's current or potential competitors include (i) various online booksellers and vendors of other products such as CDs and videotapes, including entrants into narrow specialty niches, (ii) a number of indirect competitors that specialize in online commerce or derive a substantial portion of their revenues from online commerce, through which retailers other than the Company may offer products, and (iii) publishers, distributors and retail vendors of books, music and other products, including Barnes & Noble, Inc., Bertelsmann AG and other large specialty booksellers and integrated media corporations, many of which possess significant brand awareness, sales volume and customer bases. The Company believes that the principal competitive factors in its market are brand recognition, selection, personalized services, convenience, price, accessibility, customer service, quality of search tools, quality of editorial and other site content and reliability and speed of fulfillment. Many of the Company's competitors have longer operating histories, larger customer bases, greater brand recognition and significantly greater financial, marketing and other resources than the Company. Certain of the Company's competitors may be able to secure merchandise from vendors on more favorable terms, devote greater resources to marketing and promotional campaigns, adopt more aggressive pricing or inventory availability policies and devote substantially more resources to Web site and systems development than the Company. Increased competition may result in reduced operating margins, loss of market share and a