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To: long-gone who wrote (13048)6/13/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116815
 
Richard,
I didn't discuss anything about demand and what may or may not increase them.

What I posted were what the IMF calculates as Central Bank holdings. This is a very clear and precise number and easy to verify. The other number was global mine production. Also a precise number although a bit more difficult to verify but not impossible. The 13.8 year number was the relationship between the two.

So what is not to believe about those numbers? Subjective analysis of demand does not enter the equation.

I previously indicated that production fell short of consumption. That is where we can start discussing demand trends. As of now the production shortfall has been swamped by net central bank disinvestment. The question is how much further the central banks are going to reduce their gold holdings and then analyze how long it will take demand to assimilate that extra supply.

Henry