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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/13/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: nuke	Respond to of 70976

I have a thought, KLAC, really getting hammered. I'm going to buy my first 100 shares on Monday. I'm looking 2 to 3 years out for a nice gain.

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/13/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Respond to of 70976

only thing that has really changed is the stock prices -thats it-people state things are bad in asia-really no sh--. this is were i see investors thinking is that their beliefs are more determined from what stock prices do then reality. one thing i believe is the slide of the yen is very bullish for the simple fact it will force japan to do something. all what rubin is doing is letting the yen slide because it has finally waken up japan and force them to do something. also, i would 90% of people -analyst, money magazine, have no clue whats going on this group. i mean how many upgrades did you see on amat the last three months. one thing people are forgetting is amat is gaining dramatic marketshare in the group. their goal is to be the one stop shopping for equip in the same theme as csco did with the networkers. what i see with amat is they are fine but i see some of the second and third tier players getting destroyed-ipec, sfam-my point is with the networkers you saw institutions eventually just let money flow to the leaders like csco and asnd. i see the same thing with this group where if institutions and investors putting their money just into the leaders-amat, klac, nvls. these companies will be profitable, great balence sheets, have near monopolies in their field. they are gaining more marketshare and will dominant the position by 2000 even more than today. what morgan said is basicly the same thing i'm saying but i don't downgrade at the low end. again, i see a summer rally once the pre announcement period ends. is it sustainable-i'm not smart enough to figure that it but with the recent trashing of some these stocks i'll take my chances. i see asia being lot stronger by year end then people anticipate.

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/13/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Lane, AMAT and NVLS for "front end" semi-equip. Others= Klac, ASYT, LRCX

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/14/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 70976

NVLS maybe?

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/14/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

Lane: second choices after AMAT: 1. buy a medical equipment company, or a telecom equipment maker, or something else whose stock doesn't track with AMAT. Buying a second semi-equip does nothing to reduce your short-term volatility, and probably won't make much difference in your returns either. Your returns are determined by (1)choosing stocks over bonds, (2)choosing the right industry, and (3) choosing the correct time (in the semi-equip cycle) to buy and sell. Which semi-equip you choose doesn't matter as much. 2. KLAC, after figuring out why it's been underperforming the group this downturn. AMAT won't become the bully in KLAC's playground this next upturn. The one after that, however, KLAC will be in trouble. 3. ASMLF, whose competitors are going to be starved by the Japanese recession. 4. KLIC, for the best return trough to peak. Warning: it also has the worst return trough to trough. A stock for gamblers. 5. NVLS.......you know, I can't recall a single post (in the last thousand or so, and I've read them all), critically comparing NVLS vs. AMAT, and assessing their relative strengths. I have a bias toward the gorilla (AMAT), who usually gets most of the available profits in its niche.

To: Lane who wrote (20328)	6/14/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: Lane	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Thanks for the thoughts. never have been one for buying companies that have negative earnings. That pretty much rules out Nvls for me, especially when compared to Amat. Was actually thinking of a niche leader like Klac...currently at about 1.4 P/S. Also interested in Asyst.....trading around 13 with 10 book, P/S is close to 1.0. SMIF is interesting. BB do you (or anyone) have a feel for how well SMIF is becoming (or will become) established in the industry? Still don't think its time to buy yet. Thanks. Lane edit: Anyone like Klic?