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Non-Tech : HMT TECHNOLOGY - UNDISCOVERED YET! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T Bowl who wrote (2003)	6/14/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 2253

Sounds like that will hurt IVAC Monday. I took a small 1/3 position in HMTT at 10 3/8 recently, though I've traded it off and on over the past 6 months. Clearly we see overcapacity in nearly all segments of high tech, from uProcessors to Dram to Eprom to DDs. This doesn't bode well for tech companies, but most stock prices have adjusted downward to account for this. I do believe a number of stocks will be lower at some point in the near future, but it's starting to look pretty dark out there, which means selective buying might be called for. Interesting times...

To: T Bowl who wrote (2003)	6/15/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Bill Lin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2253

Great speculation! Yes, I think your numbers will be very close to what the company will provide guidance on. However, I think maybe your numbers may be about 5% too high on revenue (81mm s/b 78mm). Right now, they are working overtime. I don't know if they have a 4th shift for the weekends, or they pay overtime. But if they just cut weekend production, their variable costs should decline somewhat, and production will decline more than 12/13 as you suggested. It might decline 10 days/90 days = 11% - (so applying 88mm * .88 = 78mm) by removing all weekend production in July. Worst case scenario is all production in July and August is reduced and revenue come in only at 68mm. That would be a disaster. Being more pessimistic (since you did the normal numbers) I'd expect a $0.10 qtr next qtr. and a $0.05 qtr after that. I think there is too much consensus in the industry that the "inventory correction" is over. Maybe it it, but I think that they will try to fill the channel way too quick. Too much capacity out there, and with GMR coming out, the situation is wicked for the next 3-4 years. HOWEVER, HMTT is still the must buy in this industry. Maybe QNTM too. Maybe 1 more huge downtrend in the ddx industry so that PSR ranges below 0.5, then it'll recover?? Great job Todd. Very classic extrapolation. BL