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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3526)	6/15/1998 9:21:00 AM
From: Brander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The WSJ article is only available to subscribers. Can you hit the highlights? Brad

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3526)	6/15/1998 2:46:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 9523

Here is an update of ED specification based on unconfirmed Internet posts. Highlights are are follows: -Total Viagra prescriptions have now surpassed 2 million since launch -Viagra new Rxs and refill Rxs for the week ending June 5th were impressive ....given that over 4,000 urologists were attending the AUA meeting in San Diego. -Viagra refill Rxs were very impressive with the important Refill/New Rx ratio moving up to 32.9% . Note: The Memorial Day holiday had a negative impact on the 5/29/98 data. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ ED New RXs Correlation: -0.903 .....................................................% Share.......% Share ......Week....Viagra........MUSE........ Viagra.........MUSE ..... Ending...New Rxs....New Rxs.....New Rxs.....New Rxs 10..6/10/98....192,585.....2,035.........99.0%.........1.0% 9... 5/29/98...161,405.....2,097......... 98.7%.........1.3% 8... 5/22/98...236,525.....2,344......... 99.0%.........1.0% 7....5/15/98....262,566....2,373......... 99.1%........ 0.9% 6... 5/8/98......278,715....2,588......... 99.1%.........0.9% 5... 5/1/98......269,842....2,945......... 98.9%.........1.1% 4... 4/24/98.....207,868 ..3,524......... 98.3%.........1.7% 3... 4/17/98.....113,134....4,609........ 96.1%..........3.9% 2....4/10/98 ......36,263... 6,716........84.4%.........15.6% 1....4/3/98............ 546... 7,998...........6.4%........93.6% 0....3/27/98...... ...... 0... 9,593 ..........0.0%.......100.0% Total .............1,759,449..37,229 Avg Post Viagra.175,945....3,723 Avg. 1997.........................12,594 ...% Chg Post/1997..............-70.4% ________________________________________ ED Refill RXs Correlation: -0.920 ............................................................% Share......% Share ......Week...Viagra.............MUSE...........Viagra..........MUSE ......Ending..Refill Rxs.........Refill Rxs......Refill Rxs....Refill Rxs 10..6/05/98....63,323..............2,755.......95.8%..........4.2% 9....5/29/98....49,452..............2,737....... 94.8%........ 5.2% 8....5/22/98....45,972...............3,026 ......93.8%......... 6.2% 7....5/15/98 ...35,100...............3,078..... 91.9%..........8.1% 6....5/8/98......24,700...............3,277......88.3%......... 11.7% 5....5/1/98.......16,429............. 3,659......81.8%......... 18.2% 4....4/24/98.......7,508..............3,824......66.3%......... 33.7% 3....4/17/98.......2,109..............4,290......33.0%......... 67.0% 2....4/10/98 .........429..............4,677..... 8.4%........... 91.6% 1....4/3/98...............0...............5,031.....0.0%...........100.0% 0....3/27/98.............0...............4,873..... 0.0%...........100.0% Total..............245,022 ...........36,354 Avg Post Viagra..24,502............3,635.....84.4%......... 15.6% Avg. 1997...................................3,278 % Chg Post/1997.........................10.9% _____________________________________________________ ED Total Rxs Correlation: -0.938 ....................................................................% Share........... % Share ........Week................. Viagra...... MUSE...........Viagra........MUSE ........Ending...............Total Rxs....Total Rxs.....Total Rxs............Total Rxs 10..6/05/98..............255,908......4,799..............98.2%.....1.8% 9....5/29/98..............210,857......4,834............. 97.8%.....2.2% 8....5/22/98 ............ 282,497......5,370............. 98.1%.....1.9% 7....5/15/98............. 297,666......5,451............. 98.2%.....1.8% 6....5/8/98............... 303,415......5,865............. 98.1%.....1.9% 5....5/1/98............... 286,271......6,604............. 97.7%......2.3% 4....4/24/98............. 215,376......7,348............. 96.7%......3.3% 3....4/17/98............. 115,243......8,899..............92.8%.......7.2% 2....4/10/98 ...............36,692.....11,393............76.3%.......23.7% 1....4/3/98.......................546.....13,029..............4.0%......96.0% 0....3/27/98 .............. .........0.....14,466............ 0.0%.....100.0% Total......................2,004,471.....88,058. ..... Avg Post Viagra ..200,447......7,359..............96.5%.......3.5% ......Avg. 1997............................15,872 ......% Chg Post/1997....................-53.6% ______________________________________________________ ED Ratio: Refill Rxs/New Rxs ......................... Viagra.............MUSE ........Week............ % refills/.....% refills/ ........Ending............New Rxs.........New Rxs 10..6/05/98...........32.9%.....135.4% 9....5/29/98............30.6%....130.5% 8....5/22/98............19.4%....129.1% 7....5/15/98 ...........13.1%....129.7% 6....5/8/98................8.9%....126.6% 5....5/1/98................6.1%....124.2% 4....4/24/98..............3.6%....108.5% 3....4/17/98 .............1.9%......93.1% 2....4/10/98 .............1.2%......69.6% 1....4/3/98 ............. 0.0%.....62.9% 0....3/27/98............ ............ 50.8% ..... Avg Post Viagra ..13.9%...97.6% ..... Avg. 1997.......................26.0% Notes Some suggestions on what to look for: -New Rxs: The key to the health of a new product. Look for volume, market share and growth trends. Viagra New Rxs are expected to plateau and decline due to heavy initial trial usage. Holidays and major specialty conventions (such as the AUA Meeting) will effect weekly totals. -Refill Rxs: An important indicator of the efficacy and toleration of a new product particularly one for prn therapy such as ED. These patients will not refill a product that is not working or is causing adverse reactions. -Refill/New Rx Ratio: Another indicator of a product's success. After an initial launch period of 4-6 months, a successful new product should have a refill ratio of at least 50%. Conversely, a product with a refill ratio of less than 50% after 4-6 months may not have been viewed as effective, well-tolerated, or available. In addition, a ratio of greater than 110% may result from a sharp decline in new specification due to alternative new therapies ....while the remaining satisfied patients continue to refill their Rxs. If this ratio is significantly higher than historical norms, the product may be in trouble.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3526)	6/18/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

First: Medicine Gauging Impotence-Drug Risks David Stipp 07/06/98 Fortune Magazine Time Inc. Page 32+ To judge from the recent flurry of stories linking the impotence drug Viagra to heart attacks, you'd think some dark agent of death had come among us. But it's actually surprising that more Viagra- associated deaths haven't been reported. If you tracked a million U.S. men ages 45 and older for a month, more than 700 would be expected to die from heart disease, according to federal statistics. Given that since its April launch Viagra has been prescribed to 1.7 million men--most of them over 50--it's hardly shocking that as of press time, 16 deaths had been reported among them. Indeed, 13 of those men had histories of cardiovascular disease or showed heart-attack symptoms, according to the Food and Drug Administration. And in half the cases it was unclear whether the men had even taken Viagra near the time of death. It's certainly possible that the number of fatalities among Viagra patients will rise considerably. But intense coverage of the issue should have scared up more reports of deaths by now if a truly alarming number had occurred. So far, the FDA and impotence experts see little cause for worry. Besides, doctors have been telling us for some time that impotent men are at elevated risk of heart attacks. Small arteries that fill the penis with blood to produce erections tend to get clogged with fatty deposits before big coronary vessels do, so impotence often signals heart disease. (FORTUNE covered this issue months ago in "The Selling of Impotence," March 16; see story in the fortune.com archive.) And lest we forget, sex can kill all by itself: For a healthy 50- year-old man, intercourse poses a heart-attack risk of about two in a million, says James Muller, director of the University of Kentucky's Gill Heart Institute. For sedentary men, whose lifestyles can contribute to impotence, the risk is much higher. So it's no great puzzle that some men on Viagra suffer heart attacks during or soon after sex, as was apparently the case in seven of the 16 Viagra- linked deaths. Nor are the heart risks of impotent men limited to Viagra. Other erection- boosters--including Pharmacia & Upjohn's Caverject, an artery-dilating drug injected into the penis, and Vivus's MUSE, a pellet inserted into the urethra--can also tempt the weak of heart into overdoing it. FDA data show Caverject was linked to three deaths during its first eight months on the market, when only about 100,000 prescriptions were dispensed, according to market researcher IMS Health. That's triple the deaths per prescription reported for Viagra so far. Alarmists might conclude Caverject is quite risky, but again, statistically speaking, that would be ludicrous. As the FDA stresses, deaths associated with a drug aren't necessarily caused by it. The FDA, however, has warned both Vivus and Pharmacia & Upjohn about failing to clearly convey the risks of their impotence drugs in promotional literature. Vivus's MUSE causes sudden blood-pressure drops in about 3% of men who take it; some even faint. Caverject's risks include busted needles (some men have broken off the needle in their penis) and abnormally long-lasting erections, which can damage tissues. The companies say they've addressed the FDA's concerns. So far, Pfizer has been very forthcoming about Viagra's risks, and it recently reiterated them in a letter to every U.S. doctor. (Note: Viagra shouldn't be taken by heart patients using "nitrate" drugs for chest pain--the mix can cause dangerously low blood pressure.) Such warnings aren't likely to take the spotlight off future Viagra-linked deaths, but they do establish where responsibility lies: You can't say they didn't warn us. --David Stipp Quote: DOCTORS HAVE TOLD US FOR SOME TIME THAT IMPOTENT MEN ARE AT ELEVATED RISK OF HEART ATTACKS. THREE COLOR PHOTOS: JESSICA WECKER (3) Gentlemen, choose your weapon--carefully. From left: Viagra, Pfizer's blue-diamond lucky charm; the wince-worthy Caverject from Pharmacia & Upjohn; Vivus's pellet-injecting MUSE system. {Viagra tablet; Caverject bottle and needle; MUSE system tube and syringe}