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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11542)	6/16/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: kech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Banking - OT Ramsey - Wasn't a lot of the rescue the walking wounded S&L's, and certainly money center banks, done by dropping the short term rate in the early 90's so banks could basically liquify themselves on the spread between low rates to savers and much higher rates to borrowers? Isn't this also what Japan is doing to protect its banks? Once all the Japanese banks have sent their assets to the US to take advantage of the higher rates -- what next would you do to make sure they stay liquid? ans. -- Drop the yen so that the value of those assets abroad stays high relative to obligations in Japan. It seems like a lot of what they are doing is already helping the banks. Tom

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11542)	6/16/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: bananawind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, I don't mean to downplay the real impact of the Asian recession or the potential impact of further deterioration. As you well know, I have had the subject on my mind for the better part of a year. My point, however, dealt with valuation and the investment decision making process. I know for certain I have zero ability to make buy and sell decisions based on global economic scenario handicapping, so I don't bother trying. If someone else believes they have this ability, more power to them. Also, I believe strongly that QCOM is an attractive business that is available at an attractive price (read well below what I think the business is worth). For me, those are the only reliable decision tools. Yes, if it turns out we have a worldwide recession, that may alter the timing and, perhaps, the magnitude of future cash flows accruing to QCOM's owners. In this case my estimate of current value will have been too high, so it is a good thing I didn't pay full value. On the other hand, there are also many, many, alternate scenario's that would make my current estimate of value be too low. Because my analytical pencil isn't sharp enough to properly assign probabilistic weights to all these alternatives, I don't do that either. Just build enough margin for error into the process. Well, I'm sure everyone has heard enough of my soapbox drivel. I'll climb off for a while. -JLF

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11542)	6/16/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: rhet0ric	Respond to of 152472

OT: re: devaluing the yen Finally, I don't like these behind the scene maneuvers by the Bank of Japan and others, trying to control the Nikkei and the yen. What is the difference between their action and insider trading? Don't know about the Nikkei, but devaluing the yen is normal and obvious. It was largely by artificially inflating the yen during the 70s and 80s that America rescued itself from the Japanese onslaught, i.e. by making Japanese exports to America more expensive, making U.S. goods more price competitive, requiring Japanese companies to build in the USA, etc. Often that was the only thing that came out of high-level trade negotiations--an agreement by both sides to inflate the yen. I see what's happening now as the flip side to that. rhet0ric

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11542)	6/16/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Strongly optimistic? Hey, that's me. This is so much fun. Politics, geopolitics, international capital, tribalism [us versus the Japanese with their stereotypes in profusion], IPR battles with Ericsson and the thread as shrink. Ramsey, you have completely turned into a geopolitical politician. Now, do you blame me or do you now realize that Qualcomm is a little entity inside a globalized humanoid circus and investors in the Mighty-Q better understand the big picture[no apologies to Compaq - trademark infringing arseaboutface Q-Thieves]? I hope Qualcomm registers q.com pretty soon. Maybe I'd better do it. Oops, just checked it and somebody has it. Anyway, back to what many seem to think is more important = New Zealand's and other Asian economies. Sure enough, there is a recession here and of course anywhere which doesn't function as an economic island - even Albania and North Korea now are dependent on outsiders - is going to have a drop in economic activity. No more trips to Las Vegas casinos by Oil Sheiks with oil at the lowest real US$ price since 1970, which means it has never been cheaper. No more Disneyland or Southern Alps jaunts by South Koreans who have to stay home, buy a cdmaOne handset and get back to work selling really cheap Hyundais and cdmaOne handsets to the USA, Japan and everywhere. No more jaunty shopping trips to The Warehouse by Kiwis to buy cheap, high quality electronics, dehumidifiers and everything else Made in China = it's back to planting trees and fleecing sheep. So I won't pretend that plenty of people's economic interests haven't been severely damaged, but there is a tendency to think it is all out pandemonium and financial collapse. It's a matter of having invested in the right stocks which will do well despite the problems. I like free flow of money around the world to rebalance debts and keep production going. And it is happening. With governments printing flat out to ensure liquidity. If there's one thing that is international conventional political wisdom now it is that liquidity must be kept up - the other is that free trade is essential. [ie no replay of trade barriers to "protect" indigenous production]. Of course not everyone thinks that, but most people in any kind of political or other powerful position have some inkling of it. Sure there is a bit of a crunch, but no worries overall and surely not a worldwide economic depression and collapse. The Japanese are now rich and older, so they are resting on the oars and spending a few of the trillions of US$ they've accumulated over the decades while the average American was spending like there was no tomorrow and borrowing to do it if their own money ran low. Sure, they've also got a S&L scale asset backing failure but that will be resolved much like the USA = steal from taxpayers by printing money, inflating the currency [which still ends up as a deflation because of productivity gains, economic malaise and all that worrying stuff]. Since everything is so cheap, I'm going shopping! Let's see, cars are cheap [but just bought a couple of those], air travel is cheap and so is fuel, Qualcomm is cheap, but I've got heaps of those and might as well spend up large while everyone has gone back to work, I think I'll buy a cdmaOne network - they should be on special now that Samsung has had a pay cut. Heck, all you people with cash on the side should be Happy as Larry [local idiom]. Those with extensive margin accounts or debts sailing on the edge are in trouble. Better apply now for a job selling cdmaOne handsets. Also, I've decided the answer to the question "is debt soft on the outside but crunchy in the centre or like marshmallow in the centre?" is that it is hard in the centre, meaning there are plenty of people like Bill Gates, Ramsey and co who have money sitting waiting. Okay, that's the optimistic side. Buy buy buy! New Paradigm RULZ OK! Mighty-Q heading for $100 [yes, yes, I know it touched $46 but stockmarkets are for buying the future]. No international collapse. Dow 16000 Feb 2002. India dumping socialism as has China. The wireless world is booming. What a wonderful world! [Store this post Tero...so you can genuflect to my soothsaying wisdom again next year]. Mqurice