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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (18620)	6/17/1998 8:19:00 AM
From: Richard S. Schoenstadt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

Mr. Pink, I happen to think there is a good case to be made for shorting Tava. However timing is everything and unless you plan on holding for a year and half, then now is definitely not the time to short. Tava has been dramatically increasing it's employees over the last few months. And for a while at least will continue to do so. This is a fact. Based on this Tava, by my estimate, has a very good chance to double it's revenue in just 2 quarters. After that who knows. Since most of this new revenue is high margin we can expect Tava to begin to make some real earnings. Now I ask you, is this a good time to short. When you KNOW a company is going to report sharply increased revenues and earnings for at least the next two quarters. I realize this is one time stuff. And after the year 2k this revenue source will gradually go away. But don't you think this dramatic short term increase of revenues and earnings will at least support the stock price at it's current level - if not drive it higher. And the fact is that Tava and it's supporters claim that Tava will be able to capitalize on it's year 2k contracts to increase it's core business. I think that is far easier said than done. But in the context of rising earnings and revenues that argument will not be easy to dismiss. Also concern over year 2k is likely to continue increasing. It could reach panic proportions. And Tava's stock price will also likely benefit from that. Right now shorting Tava is a big gamble with the odds against it. Come back in 6 to 12 months when the picture is a little clearer and and the price a little higher and you might have more of a case. RS