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To: yard_man who wrote (13331)	6/17/1998 10:09:00 PM
From: Ron Wilkinson	Respond to of 116762

I suspect it will be a shorter period of time than many would like, after all they are politicians (gutless and self serving by most measures) and the elements of the Asian contagion have not been fixed by any of the countries. The yen value is a symptom of Japan's problems that has itself become a problem. Openly manipulating its value will fool no one. Without announced believable structural changes will be surprised if these markets are not back to where they were two days ago within six/eight weeks. Regards, Ron

To: yard_man who wrote (13331)	6/17/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

Traditionally when the President is in domestic hot tub water, the plan is to hide out elsewhere. Clinton also wants to assure the Chinese that his administration still has plenty of yen Japanese bashing to do, so China shouldn't devalue. China needs some discussion concerning the nuclear threat that will be posed by the Indian-Iranian Axis and the rising problem of North Korea weapons sales. China and Japan are headed for war early in the 21st century. I guess 2004. The US needs to defuse this confrontation and we must start now. As for the yen abandonment, that depends upon the conviction level of private banks on the assumption that none of the policy positions I've recommended aren't implemented. If you assume that Summer-Mcdonough-Rivlin will achieve nothing, then the selling will start next week. The process initially will be one of testing. The market takes the yen down to see if the bilateral action develops. You get the cat and mouse routine then. Guerilla warfare. This squanders money and growing more and more important, time. Time to what? Time to upside breakout in American inflation. When that happens, end of bilateralism. If you assume that the US and Japan come up with successful jawboning, then the yen rally will last two weeks and then fail. Upside in the yen without appropriate policy in place, sets up a yen crash. That would require panic pumping on the part of the BOJ. The BOJ hasn't even understood this possibility yet. That's why Summer is the ax man and another reason he is sending himself. He knows that that is such a circumstance where the US would have to aggressively raise interest rates possibly precipitating a stock market crash. My intuition is that none of these lines will unfold, but I sense late August is when the tangible trouble starts. Remember, I'm just guessing. You know when the stock market will get whacked, yes, October. It has to happen then because that's how original the great discounting mechanism is. I have been suggesting that the Cohen rally will satisfy the same need for the "Summers' rally", but be out by Labor Day. I think gold will establish a bottom in July. I don't trust it just yet. Summers will come back with a piece of paper in his hand claiming, "piece in our time", and the markets will be ecstatic that all is well. The piece will have written on it, "Made in Japan".