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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29180)	6/17/1998 6:07:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

At least your not like someone I know who never has had a losing trade. <VBG> I do miss him though. It was the chemistry with other folks.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29180)	6/17/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: Gerald F Bunch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hello MB Here is a lucrative investment in technology.<VBG> nypostonline.com Regards GB

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29180)	6/17/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: What an interesting day. The big indexes vault on the news that the Fed has intervened (as if the Fed has any real power to move the Forex market for more than a day or two) to help out a wilting Yen. This I like. (g) Still not properly reported in the financial press is the main problem, which is that worried Japanese savers are stripping their banks, which forces the banks to recall small and medium business loans, which in turn, crucifies the producers of 70% of total Japanese GDP.) What a vicious circle. Making this whole situation even nastier is the fact that those Japanese savers are then dispatching much of the withdrawals to our markets via American bank branches. This is very naive money and just adds to an already excessive pot of dough holding this air-plant aloft. $28.0 billion worth of Yen departed the land of the Sinking Sun in April alone. The rate at which Yen is being converted and disappearing is accelerating. This simply cannot be allowed to continue, or Japan will collapse. As it is, the pressure on Japanese reserves is staggering. Count on a near term rise in Japanese interest rates. It is the only way to keep the dough at home. With their deficits, the government needs higher rates like a hole in the head, but there are now no choices. Meantime, the Chinese bring huge pressure to bear on the U.S. to do something about the falling Yen. China has been hit extremely hard by the currency devaluations of its Asian competitors, and its inventories are piling up, even as unemployment and social unrest both rise. The falling Yen provides a huge trade advantage to its primary competitor. China is the second largest holder of U.S. treasuries, so the stick they wield is rather heavy. "Big Al" is already having to print tons of greenbacks to soak up the incoming tide of Japanese treasury sales, and the last thing he needs right now is another seller. No question that the U.S. will now do what it can to try to hold back the tide. Of course it is a useless exercise, but it will buy time. I expect U.S. rates will begin to slowly inch upward over the next several months, as the Fed endeavours to keep a veritable wall of U.S. treasuries from "coming home". The arrival of the Euro will provide the world with a second (probably gold-backed) reserve currency and will unleash a third big source of treasury selling. Even print-master Alan couldn't create enough greenbacks to soak it all up. If he does, there goes the buck. He'll talk "inflation", but the rate rises will be driven by a soggy treasury market. Alan has to keep that mess offshore at all costs. He'll do it via higher interest rates. We are more than halfway through the warnings season, and it has been a beauty. As we expected, the entire tech sector is one big puke of crummy earnings forecasts, even including all the accounting gimmickry. This mess will only get worse, as it has been building up for many months. I am enjoying watching analysts scrambling to yet again revise their forecasts downward.....usually the day after the warning is issued. What a joke these guys are. Sort of makes me grin to see all five of my favourite shorts actually fall on a 200 point up Dow day. So what to do? First, say a little prayer for our dippers, as they have come riding in at the last moment to give us all another opportunity to make money on puts and shorts. I expect this rally to peter out as option expiration takes place (the put/call ratio warned that there would likely be a solid rally as it was heavily biased to the put side). I also think it is time to start expending some serious powder. Events are finally starting to overtake this market (especially Asia), rates will rise, and the earnings are evaporating. This balloon is surrounded by pins. Best, Earlie

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (29180)	6/17/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

MB and the Gang: Tomorrow, my beloved MU will favour us with their numbers. No matter what accounting gimmickry they choose to employ, it is going to be a mess. It is very difficult to produce acceptable earnings when one's product is sold for about half of what it costs to make. I know David G will take me to task for not differentiating between all-up costs (as both Skeeter Bug and I detailed months ago) as opposed to his more refined version, but we were dead on accurate and he was in dream-land. The analysts have been busily pulling back their estimates at a most amazing rate during the last two weeks, to the point where some of them have raised their loss estimate close to mine, which is a dollar per share. The company will report a smaller number, but the actual loss will show up in the balance sheet this time around as cash takes a hit. I expect the main bit of camouflage will occur within the inventory writedown, which will of necessity be very large. The company will likely dump a good part of THIS QUARTER'S production into inventory just before taking the writedown, thus masking a part of this quarter's real loss. Watch for it. I would also not be surprised if the writedown also masks some big donations of product to the company's sub, MUEI. The latest numbers from that sorry little pig just don't add up. Of course MUEI's own bit of inventory crunching last year created some of this quarter's nonsensical "profit" (doesn't every company manage to make a profit when its revenues are crushed, and its unit sales plummet?......what a total farce). I also think the parent "chipped" in a bit to help out. From the parent company's point of view, it makes sense to toss a bunch of chips to the sub at, how shall we say it ,....."reduced prices", to bonus up the reported quarter of the sub. This gets buried in the writedown anyway, so no one will either notice or care. Better to have a bit of good news somewhere. Sooner or later, the market will begin to see through all the accounting slime. MU may well aid this process this quarter as it enters a new stage in its existence,.....survival mode. Even dumb New York analysts (with the exception perhaps of Goldman's resident rodent) should be able to spot an approaching bankruptcy of this size and scale. It only takes two or three quarters like this one and all the cash is gone. The short position is rising and for good reason. Pass me the formaldehyde. Best, Earlie