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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ploni who wrote (10236)	6/18/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Joey Two-Cents	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Even if the presses had to go all day and night and produced triple didget inflation bank depositors will be paid. In the case of a major crash I'd be curious about the brokers and money managers with theiv $ 1M SIPC insurance. Also, I'd be curious next year if the media starts to hype Y2K what effect that will have on banks. True story. My wife works in Midtown Manhattan and she went to a Chase branch to make a withdrawl. The teller told her that the branch had been robbed earler that morning and that about a dozen people came in and inquired whether their money was still safe and withdrew their money. Never underestimate the stupidity of people. I can see trouble next year from the hysteria that will be created by the media. People don't understand stocks and understand computers even less. Remember perception is reality.

To: Ploni who wrote (10236)	6/18/1998 2:39:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 18691

I think that people will be covered for their insured accounts, up to the $100,000 limit. But be real. How many people -- even stupid people -- keep more than a few thousand dollars in those accounts? And on the flip side, how many people -- even smart ones -- fully recognize that their equity mutual funds, direct stock market investments, homes, stock options, and other instruments have NO INSURANCE whatsoever, and could theoretically decline to zero overnight. How many of them have made any allowances for even a 25% decline off current levels? How many fewer have even considered that the Dow might someday return to normal valuations? (A PE of 15 on the Dow would leave us around 6100, a real "recession" PE could put it below 5000, and BOTH those numbers are compared to current earnings, which could decline.) When this thing bursts, a lot of people will find themselves unable to support their current existence, let alone long-term plans, retirement, etc. mg