To: E Haiken who wrote (1370 ) 6/18/1998 4:52:00 PM From: Jim Parkinson Read Replies (1) | Respond to
As I watch G* tumble here and read the posts both here and on the I* board (I own both but, much heavier G*), it reminds me of something another investor friend of mine told me when we both started buying L* and G* in 1996. He said, "Mark my words. Just before these systems go commercial, you will see all sorts of volatility fueled by all sorts of rumors as more and more people become aware of this emerging industry. The naysayers who have just caught on will try to shoot holes in the business plans. It will be a time that will really test the metal of the long-term investor who has done their homework." He is right. That is what is happening now. Although I am anxiously awaiting the Zenit launch, I do believe our folks have done their homework and know what they are doing. I also find the debate between diehard I* and G* supporters who would have you believe one is going to succeed at the expense of the other to be interesting. If any of us are right about the demand and if we are wrong we are all in trouble. In fact that will be a lot harder on BS that Chinagate. The I* bashers still question the $3k cost of the phone and $3 per min cost. The G* bashers claim that the $750 G* phone will really cost more and be closer to the cost of the I* phone to the end user as will the cost per min. The I* supporters claim thier cost per min will be cheaper than $3. Hell, all I know is that there is a 2 billion dollar difference in cost between the two systems which has got to be made up some place and the G* system is technically superior (CDMA, bent pipe) and simpler which is why I am heavier G*. Okay, the diehard I* supporters will say that the G* cost will be closer to I* after the failed Zenit launches and G* will have to pay $10,000 per lb per payload vs $2,500 on the Zenit which could happen heaven forbid. We are on the dawn of seeing global telephony become a reality and I think my friend was right on with his prediction.
