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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (48136)	6/18/1998 5:29:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, for once I agree with you! You have precisely defined the risk. That's why this endless nonsense about ASPs wears thin. The real point is can Dell continue to grow at a rate consistent with its price. This is not peculiar to Dell. It is equally true of every growth stock. The bulls obviously think it can. So far, there is no indication that sales growth is declining. In fact, it is beginning to look as if it may actually be accelerating or at least poised to accelerate. Consider these developments: 1. Dell announces entry into the mass storage business based on Data General technology; 2. Dell is building new plants in South America, Europe and Asia; 3. Notebook sales are up 104% year over year; 4. Dell reports that business is brisk. Now, what are the negatives? There is only one that I can think of. IDC (or was it Dataquest?) forecast only 9% growth in unit sales. As you can see, all of the negatives are based on conjecture or misinformation. People like Techie spreading rumors about lost business. People like LT who think the economy is about to implode. People who don't understand microeconomics and who think that falling component prices is bad. I am a bull because I see no tangible evidence that Dell's growth is faltering or in danger of faltering. I am a bull because I see a business that is run peerlessly using any financial parameter you wish to point to. TTFN, CTC

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (48136)	6/18/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, what the Dell bears are forgetting is: What if sales growth is being underestimated. There are even more issues out there that could seriously enhance Dell's ability to grow revenue and earnings faster than currently anticipated. I am even more positive that once it becomes guaranteed DELL will be #1 in all market share categories by 2001, the stock price will reflect this with a minimum PE of 40 and $5/shr earnings resulting in a $200/shr target minimum. DELL is a hardware company, a technology enabler, an asset management company, a TCO reduction partner, a savior to businesses who need to compute to compete. Today's PC's are already obsolete... that's not a commodity. Are there static and dynamic commodities? What is the definition of a commodity that is constantly evolving and facing obsolescence every 12 months? What is the definition of a commodity that bears little resemblance to itself 3-5 years earlier? I'm helping develop next years offerings. You aint seen nothin yet. Maybe the stock will trade at 60 times earnings that are 100% higher in 12 months. It may be 70 times 150% of todays earnings in 14 months. Maybe 200 times todays earnings in 18 months. We know how well DELL runs things when growth is not-so-strong... witness Q1. What if BA is actually entering into more large volume contracts with Dell as we speak? What would an increase from 55% unit growth to 65% unit growth do to the bottom line? What if the grew from 7% market share to 10% market share by the end of this year? What if they grew to 14% next year and 20% the year after that? What if they not only succeeded into growing enterprise and notebook business to >50% of their revenues but managed to sell mainly high-end desktops and increase overall ASP's while the rest of the industry is declining? This is their plan you know. What would that do to the stock? What if they exceeded their plan expectations? What if they continue to be the only PC company that can deliver consistent and predictable earnings growth quarter to quarter, year to year? What if they continue to execute on their share buyback program? What would that do to the stock? We know what that would do to the stock. These are the questions that haunt me... MEATHEAD

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (48136)	6/18/1998 7:52:00 PM
From: Geoff Nunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jim, what's your outlook on the pc businesses of any or all of the following: CPQ, HWP, IBM, and PBell? CPQ's pc segment used to be profitable, but isn't any longer. HP has never made a dime on its lower-end PCs. IBM's pc business is losing money. PB long ago mastered the art of growing market share with the pedal to the metal, while losing money. (Today, it's CPQ and HP that are playing in that game). PB recently closed two plants. PB's planned IPO was postponed due to poor profitability. Quite frankly, the industry -with the exception of Dell - looks sickly. What do you think? Will each of them survive the next 5 years? Also, which ones will prosper (besides Dell of course)? Regards, Geoff