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To: j g cordes who wrote (1314)	6/18/1998 11:13:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

I don't know if the items you point out are considered oddball any longer. I think I have seen similar analyst comments for almost a year now. I suppose the logic is....just guessing....once you pull the "expected" number down and it becomes reachable then when the earnings come out all is well with the world. Even though the targets have become easier. There is always some quirky item they can point to and make excuses for the expected reduction. Of course, it's usually something a normal person would consider a red flag. Something like weak sales to (pick an Asian Country). On a side note, I learned today that analysts get even less respect than I thought. We played at a different club than usual and the caddies were brothers, both intelligent, who wanted to be analysts. One kid was heading back to college to get his second Master's----this one in Finance. The guys I was playing with were a retired AMEX options trader, a retired CBOE MM, and a retired Bond something or other guy. (All younger than me....boy did I waste a lot of time in engineering) They told this kid in no uncertain terms he did not want to be an analyst, various reasons why, and offered suggestions and contacts. For example, one guy noted that only 3% of analysts are worth mention. Evidently, it's a field where the upside is very limited. So I don't know much about analysts but I think to a large degree Brokerage Houses use them primarily to be able to have demonstrated due diligence on the issues they recommend to customers. Merrill brokers, for example, are closely watched by Compliance to make certain they are not recommending issues not followed by their analysts. I know one Merrill broker who has excellent contacts but has to be very careful about buying stocks in those firms where ML does not have a position by an analyst. To sum up, what I'm saying is that the posturing of any given analyst should always be taken with a grain of salt. I think reducing estimates and maintaining "buy" recos is just a political game.