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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mike iles who wrote (35488)	6/20/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

mike, the cash loan was pure genius. but, then again, no cash, no deal, no alternative ;-) mu may or may not be out of the woods yet. this glut only need last 12 more months and mu is toast. what will impact this? 1. pc sales slowing. 2. pc sales ultra sensitive to any price increases (incl dram!). dram goes up and sales go down or pc companies get blasted on the bottom line. 3. bit production continues. i forget mu's bit growth increase this q but it was substantial - even with few capexes. everyone is doing the same thing. for all of 98 production for 64 mb chips is 20-30% higher than demand. 4. everyone thinks dram will change for the positive "tomorrow" and they are preparing for it today - guaranteeing that it won't happen "tomorrow." 5. the 2nd bit of good news is that some capacity is being moth balled. this needs to happen much, much, much more before the sick gets well.' 6. everyone is greedy preventing an up cycle anytime soon. this may also prevent said up cycle from being so "up." it better be, though. as mike pointed out, mu made great money from 1991 through 1995. all that has been wiped out so mu is defaulting on loans after 6 months of losses. this is not a good business. 7. every company has a value at which it is a buy. you are correct that mu is a buy much lower than now. 8. mu went to $38 on much less news - that korea was nearly out of inventory. not, in a vacuum, of course. other factors helped significantly. however, if micron management said korea had tons of inventory and prices would continue to collapse (as actually happend!) then it would've been nowhere near $38. good luck. mu has increased the odds of surviving in a cut throat business where 6 months of bad can wipe out 6 years of good. i'm not convinved surviving is a good thing. it might just prolong the agony. hey, mu is good at that. maybe it is into s&m. ;-)