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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (35492)6/20/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: mike iles  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Skeeter ... agree with your comments, especially about the psychology .... you can't really have an upturn until most of the people give up on it and throw in the towel .... on a scale of 1-10 I'd say we're about 3 or 4 in getting through that process ... got to be lot more Twinstars ... this is why I'm still a bear on MU ... just saying that when the dust finally settles it's worth a look from the long side because of Appleton ...

regards, Mike



To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (35492)6/20/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: DavidG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Skeeter,

Real nice post.

I would only point out that PC sales are not only affected by memory prices, but significantly affected more by CPU's, DVD's, motherboards, hard drive, video, sound, modem, and zips. Dram is about the least expensive component and at one time was not. So a dollar or two more or less won't hurt the PC sales that much compared to the other components in total. But the fact is it is destroying the DRAM business. There is no reason why all DRAM companies have to lose money. Maybe Samsung and others are now beginning to realize they can do something so that all can make a little more in memory.

Korean and Japanese fabs are being closed. Production is being limited. If it is enough I don't know but maybe it is going in the right direction. Maybe with Samsung merging the KOREAN fabs and MICRON merged with TXN the big players can control the market a little more. Just a guess but that also appears to be moving in a positive direction then before.

DJ pointed out how just a 9% change in the exchange rate can drastically affect Microns bottom line. Well it is also true if just a 9% increase in all memory can help all DRAM companies and that is only maybe 15 or 20 cents.

Good Luck with Puts

DavidG