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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5937)	6/20/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Those who believe the conventional wisdom that chip stocks bottom about 3 months before chip equips do might find the following interesting as it relates to the 96 cyclical daily low closes.---- LSI,TXN,VLSI,INTC all bottomed on July 23-24 while AMAT,NVLS,LRCX and AYST all bottomed on July 24 as well. A few like KLIC and KLAC put in double bottoms on July 29/Aug1 and then on Sept9/12 but the thing to note is that off the late July lows, all of the chip equips went up 20-35% over the ensuing 3 weeks (AYST up 35%) while all the chip stocks went up 16-40% over the same time frame.-----The inference is that chips and chip equips actually bottom concurrently since the chip equips are already so depressed at the chips' lows.

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5937)	6/20/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: studdog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Well, the blood is starting to flow. Valuations of the semi equips are reaching the levels that precipitated this thread in the first place. (I guess that's what "cyclical" means!). Cary Salsberg, the father of this thread, used 2 X's cash and 1.5 x's book as the beginning of his entry points. Well, the group as a whole is starting to get there. EGLS and ASYST are there. KLIC and UTEK are close. Some, such as AMAT and NVLS are a long way off. It seems to be largely a factor of market cap. The larger companies are selling at higher multiples, the small caps are the cheap ones. Is anyone following these parameters? If anyone has a spreadsheet I would sure love to see it. I've got some KLAC and PRIA and may start in with the cash rich companies selling for book. Karl

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (5937)	6/20/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Respond to of 10921

Joseph, I agree with the sentiment of your post, in that it is obvious that, as far as the world stage is concerned in the long run, computers and all that they bring is here to stay, and indeed we will go forward with the development of technology. However, as an investor, what IS worrisome in the near term is the consequences for semi stock prices if Japan, ala Atlantis, sinks beneath the waves, dragging the whole of SE Asia (economically) with it. I simply do not see at this moment where the capital is going to come from to save the Japanese financial services sector, let alone funds for semiconductor expansion. The kind of contraction I'm looking at is one unheard of in our time. I have NEVER recommended gold or gold mining stocks before, but if we (Takeshi and I were talking about this yesterday) don't see some positive signs and soon, I'm moving in that direction, because we don't see any way this will not have major league negative consequences on the West (and a near-term speculative pop in gold prices is due, ie good chance of occurring with little downside risk.) jess.