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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ToySoldier who wrote (22840)	6/22/1998 1:54:00 PM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Post from MF: Out of my respect for the comman man I usually post to AOL first before contributing elsewhere. This was yesterday's edition: ================================= Subject: Can MSFT Preempt Novell's Directory Strategy? Date: Sun, Jun 21, 1998 23:46 EDT From: Ida5683 Message-id: <1998062203461300.XAA02641@ladder03.news.aol.com> Now that Gate's game is finally understood for what it really is, the entire world watches to see if he will overstep, overreach, etc. When you have monopoly power the devil is really in the details more than ever before. My guess is that Gates wants to soften Schmidt up just enough to get him to let his guard down to give something away he really doesn't have to at this point. Schmidt has already accomplished his first end run with the news last week about Intel. I know, I know, the stock didn't run and we can whine about it, but the fact remains, Novell's move to embrace "open" as opposed to "closed" solutions to connectivity and networking really stands out. Intel, seems to see this as the future also. They are not just hedging their bets. News of Schmidt's talks with Gates is the response. Novell holds two aces: NDS - which they COULD give away the native NT version; and their deal with Intel supporting an "open" road with Java. These are two very strategic cards. I hope he keeps them very close. Gate's can't pull another Netscape move. That card has been taken from his deck by Justice. He had already played his Java card - wrong move...the world's going in the other direction. His attempt to control the internet is a complete stalemate. Forces much more powerful are moving away from proprietary systems. I see Novell having the stronger hand regardless of MSFT's market power, etc. Worst thing Schmidt can do is believe Gate's intentions are harmonious. Gate's only knows one thing: seek and destroy, period. Now Gate's style and approach has had to change. He knows AD 3.0+ - with all the bugs out - won't be ready for prime time until way after 2000. He knows Java WILL be gathering steam. He knows the ultimate power will reside in DIRECTORIES - not OS's. Directories - the new internal Yahoos of a Networked World. Directories - intelligence on where's things are at and who can get them. Directories - interlinked, intertwined, overlapping, ever changing and OPEN. Now that handhelds are about to take off, Directories are even more important then ever. If the entire world was already on NT, Gate's obviously wouldn't need Novell. It's the percent that DOESN'T have NT which makes Novell's "open" directory solution that much more powerful. Gate's needs Novell more than Novell needs Gates. The power has shifted, but lets not gloat. There is still a lot of intrigue to work through. Good luck! Ida5683

To: ToySoldier who wrote (22840)	6/22/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Ghassan I. Ghandour	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Toy - I understand your position very well, I think, and agree with many things you said. In fact, your post on the Y2K compliance of NW5 as the basis of your bullishness was the first positive post I ever saw convincing about NOVL (I have always been a believer in the goo Dr. mind you). You also cited some good reason to believe Novell's marketing is improving, somewhat. The only thing left for me to be a full fleged believer is to see revenue improvement in an upcoming earnings report (and as Erick S. would stress, an improvement in FF-cash flow from operations -- the same goes for INPR). So, I agree with your forcast about the stock's performance up until the earnings. After that, well, the earnings will tell the tale as Joe used to say. I know very well though that the expectation (the waiting for) NW5 may put pressure on the earnings, this coming one, but there should be a way to read between the lines (for instance, I would like to see how the newly released products are doing etc...). And Quad - Nice move on VLSI today. It is good to see one depressed semi acting well for a change. Ghassan.