To: Mama Bear who wrote (3323 ) 6/22/1998 5:55:00 PM From: Robin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5736
Barb, Can you believe the tenacity of these longs? Recklessly disregarding the fact that this stock may not be worth buying even at this price. CCSI labels the news release as a major milestone. What a laugh! An agreement to launch a study that may determine what, if any, the appropriate usage and price for this product would be in the People's Republic of China. And we all get to wait three months to find out the results of this study and what, if any, revenues are suggested that will come out of this market. After three months, we'll probably get another study (i.e., more bribe money necessary). The only major milestone I see is that this release will be instrumental in dragging out the inevitable collapse of this company several weeks longer as more uninformed money trickles in! Now, to get to the real numbers we can hope to get from the study. What realistically does anyone think the average parent in China can afford? Half of the population is rural and will not be able to afford this or any other test at any price! Next, half of the births are female and the survival of such infants are of little concern to many (my apologies to those of you offended by this, but it is a reality that female infanticide is prevalent in China). After this, does anyone have a realistic figure as to how many births in China occur in hospitals? In the cities (Hong Kong, Beijing, And Shanghai), the Bili-Chek might be used but only if it is available and only if it costs less than the heel prick. Does anyone out there know what is charged for the heel prick test in your average Chinese hospital? or do they even perform this test! I think once one makes a legitimate attempt to calculate the revenue stream from this market, even the most optimistic calculations will be marginal. And don't forget the necessary bribes which need to be made continually to the appropriate Chinese officials (apparently being made now or else we would not have had this news release). Wall Street knows this and showed it in the lack of effect this announcement had on the price today. With the advent of this announcement, I would be led to believe that CCSI has been unable to complete a manufacturing and distribution agreement with any major medical manufacturer in the US or Europe. To put emphasis (read: major milestone) on this deal (with China) and the insignificant immediate financial impact it offers, it just lends greater credibility to the belief that CCSI management is bluffing. It looks like Darby is making one last ditch effort to get a manufacturing partnership going and this may be the last meager opportunity left to her. So there it is, as Gipper (post 3161) and CCSI (I believe he was quoting Jennifer) had promised two Friday's ago, we would not see the deal last week, or over this past weekend, but rather this week. 'THE DEAL' has been made. Well, we now have 'THE DEAL', and guess who's been dealt! Unfortunately chuckling at those still in denial and long! Rockin' Robin