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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/23/1998 9:34:00 AM
From: see clearly now  Respond to of 9980
 
A concise overview of of China..and one I concur with..my question is what sequence of events might change their future course for the betterment of all? and how do they get there from here?



To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/23/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: Bill Ounce  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9980
 
re: China business weirdness : Washington Post -- US firm demands Engineers release

search.washingtonpost.com

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shaugun Pan was a brilliant young engineer, a Chinese immigrant
who took his American dreams with him when he returned to his homeland to start a
high-tech business.

The deal apparently went sour, and he's paying a price he never dreamed of: nine months
in a Tibetan prison -- so far.

[...]

''A disagreement between two companies should not get someone arrested without a
trial,'' said Linsue Pan, mother of the 33-year-old chief engineer of Pantech Global Inc.,
a Chicago-based company.

Pantech Global, which designs and produces 3-D imaging and graphics equipment,
claims Pan is being held as a pawn in a business dispute with the Beijing-based
businessman, Wang Zhi.

[...]



To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/23/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su  Respond to of 9980
 
Worswick,

You are asking for an education that I cannot provide. Unlike you, I don't feel qualified to call myself a "historian", little or otherwise. I am a student of history and I doubt if I will reach the historian status in my lifetime. The reason for my comment was in emotional reaction to your totally sophomoric (is kindergardnic a word, it would've been more appropriate.) opinions, clearly demonstrating your lack of understanding of China.

A point by point rebuttal would only be worthy, if you have any points. Instead, why don't I give you some suggestions, hoping that they may add some open mindedness and depth to your thought process.

Where do we start? The opium war and the subsequent Naking Treaties is as good as any. There are two very significant consequences of the opium war. First, it allowed a couple of dope dealers, Jardine and Matheson, to openly destroy the masses through opium, especially the upper and educated classes. Second, it demonstrated to the world what a paper tiger China was. A few gun ships thousands of miles from home can bring China to her knees. This opened up China to all the colonistic attacks by all the hyenas from Europe, who had already devoured the entire Americas, India, Indo-China etc.

This eventually led to the demise of the last dynasty.

Early 1900s, Sun Yet-sen founded the new China, with his 3 people doctrine. Unfortunately, the concept was not adequate to attract enough followers to overflow even the totally weakened Qiang armies. Skipping a few decades, it was the Japanese who provided the final straw that broke the camel's back. When the Manchu Pui Ye puppet government was established, China was thrown into civil war while the Japanese were committing monstrosities which are still haunting their relationship with China and Korea today.

1949, China was once again united under communism. Let us pause for a moment and assess the state of the union.

First, Chiang took to Taiwan not only funds, historic treasures but also the educated class. Mao was left with a country of uneducated peasants. Second, this is the first time in China's long history that it is not under monarchy. Third, the infrastructure was totally destroyed.

Needless to say, the following years were marked with mistake after mistake. Most of my readings on this subject were in Chinese but I believe a US reporter named Fox Butterfield (?) wrote a book "Life in the Bitter Sea" which gave a good account of those years. Most notable were big mistakes like the Big Leap Forward. Comical tragedies included: melt woks into industrial grade steel, killing all the sparrow to save the crops only to result in locust famines etc etc.

Just as you think that things couldn't get any worse, the Cultural Revolution broke out in 1966. What little was accomplished since 1949 were totally destroyed. What little left of the educated class were perched. The likes of Zhou Enlai, DengXiaping were lucky to survive while millions like Liu Shaoqi were not so fortunate. What little resemblance of law and order were replaced by little red guards waiving Mao books, making up new "laws" along the way.

In between, China decided to get involved in the Korea and Vietnam Wars. Both drained the very last few drops of blood from the turnip.

Finally Mao died in 1976. I consider this to be the start date of the new China, just a short 22 years ago. Let us again pause to do another state of the union analysis.

The most populous country in the world is facing with obstacles and hardship unimaginable to westerners having friendly political discussions over a glass of Chardonay.

There is an entire generation of citizens who are uneducated, the same group remains a headache today as unemployment starts to escalate as a result of Zhu's reforms. The last of the surviving educated class are now old and scared.

Aside from some cultural link to the forgone eras of Confucious, China was totally left with no political infrastructure. Yes, there is the Communist Party but all the things that we take for granted were non-existent. Worswick, you sound old enough to remember 1976. Just think about every aspect of your daily life back then and imagine what it would have been like if you had lived in China at that time.

First and foremost, China has to feed its people. With 4 times the population and less productive land than the United States, it is not a surprise that not many Chinese were over-weight.

Every little item of daily life that is routine to us is an effort. Where are the banks? How about housing? How about things that we call utilities - water, heat, gas, phones, cable TV etc etc? Transportation?

Take a look at what China has accomplished in the last 22 years. Lets use 1776 to 1798 as a comparison. Do you think the young USA made as much progress in her first 22 years, even though she did not face remotely the same hardship that China did?

Now take a look at your own post. If you have one trace of intelligence, tell me if it is remotely realistic to have the type of expectations that you put on China. You remind of the brat in the toy store, screaming "I want".

Yes, we all like to live in a better and perfect world. There is a practical side. Like George Bush said, try to be "kinder and gentler".

Finally, I stopped posting on this thread before, because of individuals like yourself. I still have to glance through every now and then because Asia is of such importance to my investment welfare at this time. There are better posters now and I have discussed specifics with them via private message. Your post irritated me enough that I feel compelled to post, so that other readers are not lead down the same naive and narrow minded path that you have chosen for yourself.

Having said that, I will not be posting on this subject again.

Ramsey



To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/23/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Constant Reader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9980
 
*OT* And where, pray tell did you study Chinese history? What was/is your research interest, your current occupation, and which books were instrumental in your education or subsequently assisted you in coming to the conclusions you have stated? Regards, Randy



To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/23/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Ron Bower  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 9980
 
Worswick,

I rarely post to this thread, but I disagreed with your earlier post about China, primarily because of it's tone, but also because it fails to recognize the changes that have been made in recent years. My 2 cents on your latest post:

>"I'd like to know: Is there a body of law in China that relates to remediating trade disputes between Chinese and an investor in China who thinks he has been nicked by his Chinese partner? Who thinks that he has been cheated or been not told the truth in initial "discolsure statements"?

Every investor in a Chinese company sees this warning: "The legal system in China relating to foreign investments is both new and continually evolving and currently there can be no certainity as to the application of its laws and regulations in particular instances. China does not have a comprehensive system of laws. Enforcement of existing laws or agreements may be sporadic and implementation and interpretation of laws inconsistent. The Chinese judiciary is relatively inexperienced in enforcing the laws that do exist, leading to a higher than usual degree of uncertainty as to the outcome of any litigation. Even where law does exist in China, it may not be possible to obtain swift and equitable enforcement of that law."

In other words, there are risks when investing in China. It is changing and changing fast, using the successes and failures of others as models.

>"Is there any "transparency" what so ever in China in financial statements issued by Chinese banks, or companies? How do you get information that verifiable as an investor in China?"

I might point out that the recent bank failure in Japan disclosed they had understated 'bad loans' by 1/3.

>"The Chinese army sits at the center of the political elite in China and they are determined to affect a "world role" and a forward position in world politics. The Chinese army answers to no one except itself. Can anyone in China who runs up against the army get "justice" in any court you know of."

This is a major problem for Zhu Rongi and for the changes the leadership desires in China. They must have the support of the Army and therefore must be careful in attempts to reduce it's power and corruption. However, I believe, and I may be wrong, that you have overstated the current objectives and influence of the Army.

>"Population. Basically, it seems to me that the 100 million young, mostly uneducated "country" young men migrating to the Chinese cities won't find work and that these 100 million pissed off young men -without Chinese women because of "male preference" in Chinese famlies - will form the core of a generation of discontent in China that is difficult if not impossible for China to deal with. This underpopulation of dispossessed will eventually turn to traditional tong like criminality and drugs; it will be one of the largest destabilizing forces to the rest of the world, as this group of young men seeks a larger and larger sphere of influence. Meanwhile, in China 99.99% of this group will supply a permanent drag on the economy and it will form the center of hitherto undreamt of urban slums prey to Hitler-like xenophobic visions of Chinse superiority.

I consider this paragraph is just short of racism. I must have known the right Chinese and read a different history book than you. I definitely have developed a different opinion of the Chinese peoples than you. I know them as being hard workers, too willing to accept adversity, and obstinate in their pursuit of long term goals. A different culture and a different history, but they have the same desires and objectives as any of us - a decent life. You object to comparisons with the US, but I think your judgement of China ignores our own problems with 'criminality and drugs' (much worse) and the hypocrisy of our own 'visions of superiority'. What conditions would exist here if we had 2.2 Billion people?

>"Finally, at the root of the Chinese ethos, is a particularly Chinese distrust of anything outside the family. This creates an anti-democratic, ruthless, cynical, humorless and anarchistic society where power is everything and individuals are night soil."

This is absurd. I will presume you meant 'totalitarian' society instead of 'anarchistic'. It was not the "distrust of anything outside of the family" that led China into communism, it was starvation. As you well know, the country was raped and totally decimated by the Japanese after WWII. Anyone able to provide food and shelter, anyone able to organize, anyone able to lead, would have been accepted. Unfortunately, it was Mao. History shows that the Chinese peoples are a sharing society with the capacity to build a prosperous nation with the right leadership.

>"It did happen and was allowed to happen because of characteristics innate in the Chinse character that made it possible. Mass hysteria. Greed. Lack of individual will"

This is racism and rediculous. You make the victim responsible for the rape. The 'mass hysteria' of a peoples being raped, killed, and plundered. 'Greed' of a peoples known for communal sharing. 'Lack of individual will' of persons living in a society without freedom or individual rights. All of it "inate to their character"!! You insult the thousands of Chinese that risked their lives to escape, those that have suffered in the collective farms, those that have died rather than succomb. The bigotry of this statement causes you to lose any credibility you might otherwise have. Do you also apply the same logic to the Jews? Africans? Russians? Other racial or ethnic groups that have lost individual freedoms?

While you denigrate China and it's peoples, don't forget that 60 years ago it was Japan that was commiting atrocities, ignoring human rights, seeking global dominance, all for a Manifest Destiny in the name of the Emperor. Prior to this, China was open to world commerce and society only to be invaded by Europeans in their attempts at looting and plunder. An absurdity of history is that the US aided Japan and Germany, but ostracized and ignored China after WWII. Was their isolationism a result of societal factors or was it forced on them? Which country has now opened it's doors to foreign investment and commerce, which is demonstrating the isolatative greed that you attribute to China?

I am one of those that believes China will surpass Japan. Because of the events in Japan, it will now be far more difficult for them, but they are used to adversity and in the initial stages of their reformation. Because of this, their growth will continue, but at a slower pace. The same things that have gotten Japan into so much trouble will cause their problems to continue. I have the same opinion of South Korea.

I don't doubt that you have an extensive knowledge of Chinese (likely far more than my own), but I believe you have chosen to ignore many aspects of that history in your statements.

JMHO,
Ron



To: Worswick who wrote (4758)6/25/1998 2:50:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette  Respond to of 9980
 
Uh oh Worswick you seem to be in 'trouble' with 'boys' here on China,if you need any help let me know.<VBG>