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Politics : Did Slick Boink Monica? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Hensley who wrote (16403)	6/23/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: Catfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20981

John, The conservative estimate is maintaining the status quo in house, or a small gain. But, the "out on the limb" prediction by Dick Morris and a few others is that we will see a significant gain in the house and the senate. Also, don't believe the polls regarding Clinton's "popularity" either. This type of thing tends to correct as we get closer to elections. After all, the pollsters don't want to be embarrassed by the actual results versus the poll numbers. Darrell

To: John Hensley who wrote (16403)	6/23/1998 2:48:00 PM
From: Zoltan!	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 20981

Analysts say the issues are moving against the Dems and Dick Morris sees a 5% generic advantage for the Reps in the latest polls. That's why Slick is talking "family" again. I think the public just tunes him out - he is as weak a prez as we've ever had. Morris says that polls under report Rep strength by 5%, so that gives a 10% advantage for Reps. Morris and others predict a minimum of a 20 seat pickup for Reps in the House. The media seems to want to configure the upcoming election as a nip and tuck fight for control of the House. That ain't likely as the "6 year itch" gives the non-presidential party a powerful push at the polls, usually + 30-40 seats. The media and their allies the Dems need to rally Dem turnout and the best way is to report that Dems have a realistic chance for control. Btw, the strongest issue for Reps is Clinton - they will win by saying that if the Dems take control of the House then Clinton will run amok. That will scare Reps and Indeps into voting Rep.