1) get credible contacts within the equipment buyers themselves (customers)
2) get credible contacts within the equipment vendors (sellers)
3) find a few trustworthy financial analysts
4) once in a while use the credible market sizing research firms
1) Buyers are held under NDA and do not give out numbers. Anyone who does isn't credible.
2) Ditto with equipment vendors. If someone's talking, they're so far down the totem pole their numbers have as much meaning as yours or mine.
3) "Trustworthy financial analysts?" Is that an oxymoron? Sounds like "military intelligence." Seriously, I like the analysts at H&Q and when I talked to one in the networking division earlier today, I asked how they got their numbers and he said they don't base them on published contract announcements because they aren't specific. Instead, one factor is to look at sequential growth and extrapolate from that.
4) I would believe a market research firm could give historic numbers, but I doubt they could quote specific numbers going forward any more than an analyst could. The most they can do is to state,"The projected market for XYZ is_____; NN commands ___%, therefore. . ."
Since you like official numbers, the following is taken from the most recent JP Morgan "Data Networking Market Projections" report:
Carrier Market
Frame Relay --- Backbone
5 year CAGR --- 22.4%
Market Share: --- Ascend 24%; Cisco 17%; Newbridge 14%; Alcatel 11%.
2000E --- $1.879 B
Frame Relay --- Access
5 year CAGR --- 27.3%
Market Share --- Cisco 16%; Nortel 15%; Motorola 13%; Newbridge 7%.
2000E --- $2.049B
ATM --- Backbone
5 year CAGR --- 56.5%
Market Share --- Newbridge 32%; Cisco 22%; Nortel 11%; Ascend 8%.
2000E --- $2.562B
You will notice Newbridge is the world leader in the fastest growing of the three markets they're in.
if you do this you will find info like I included in my previous post as well as the fact that BT only had 16-17 36170 switches installed by the end of 1997 and they will only add another 5-7 in 1998. Your are correct in thinking USWest was a substantial account for NN - but you need to realize two things: First - NN was kicked out back in 8/97. they have not sold a thing since that time and infact have not even made a sales call. Second - "Substantial is a relative term. USWest installed 62 36170 switches so sure, NN may consider that "substantial" (FYI - for a point of reference USWest has nearly 400 Ascend B-STDX 9000 switches...is that more or less equally substantial? I guess you ask either NN or Ascend that one)
It's hard to find hard numbers, so I began by looking at ATM customers quarter by quarter. To date there are 260 for the 36170. Even if each customer bought 1 switch, the total would make your numbers absurd. Are you saying these 260 customers are ordering switches and not installing them? Please provide URLs to document your findings. You'll note the Stentor Alliance has already installed 9 MainStreetXpress 36170s, over half of what you claim were installed world-wide.
3Q 97: There were 15 new customers for the MainStreetXpress 36170 system in the quarter, boosting the total number of customers for the product to approximately 90.
4Q97: The MainStreetXpress 36170 Multiservices Switch achieved record revenue and order intake. There were 17 new customers for the product in the quarter, bringing the total number of customers to over 100, as the product strengthened its position as the industry's flagship ATM system for the wide area network.
1Q98: The strong showing in WAN packet business was driven principally by the industry's flagship ATM system, the MainStreetXpress 36170 Multiservices Switch, which also achieved record revenue, order intake and backlog again this quarter. Both revenue and order intake for this product increased approximately 40% sequentially and were more than triple the revenue and order intake levels in the first quarter of fiscal 1997. There were more than 60 customers for the MainStreetXpress 36170 switch in the first quarter of fiscal 1998 alone, including 12 new customers. The product has now been sold to more than 120 customers throughout the world comprising many of the world's largest service providers.
2Q98: There were 80 customers for the MainStreetXpress 36170 switch in the second quarter alone, including 24 new customers. The product has now been sold to more than 130 customers, including many of the largest service providers throughout the world.
3Q98: There were approximately 80 customers for the MainStreetXpress 36170 multiservices platform in the quarter - including 20 new customers - boosting the total number of customers for the product to more than 250.
4Q98: There were approximately 80 customers for the product in the quarter - including another 15 new customers -- and more than 100 new customers during the year, as the product strengthened its position as the leading ATM system for the wide area network. The total number of customers for the MainStreetXpress 36170 Multiservices Switch is now over 260.
Bell Canada:
newbridge.com
<<<Bell Canada awards ATM contract to Newbridge for a multi-year supply agreement for ATM equipment
>>>
newbridge.com
<<<
KANATA, Ontario, May 29, 1996 -- Newbridge Networks today announced that Bell Canada, the largest telecommunications service provider in Canada, has awarded Newbridge a multi-year supply agreement for asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) equipment . The contract covers the full suite of Newbridge MainStreet ATMnet switches.>>>
[This was awarded in 1996 and I imagine they've installed a few switches by now.]
bce.ca
[do "ATM" search]
In an interview with BCE's Red Wilson:
<<<
Last year the federal government committed to making Canada the most connected nation in the world by the year 2000. What does this mean for Canada? . . . .
Nationally, Bell and its fellow Stentor telephone companies are using equipment from Nortel, Newbridge and others to build the next cross-country multimedia network, based on a new transmission method called asynchronous transfer mode (ATM). Through MediaLinx, we're investing in Internet content development in English and French for our Sympatico Internet service. Finally, Bell Canada's new Bell Emergis division is working with entrepreneurs and researchers to develop network software to power new applications.>>>>
And in a report to shareholders:
<<<
Consider too that our vast distances have always motivated Canadians to excel in the technologies of connectedness, making us pioneers in telephony and satellite communications. This fundamental motivation is reflected in Canada's outstanding business capability in telecommunications, where companies like Nortel and Newbridge are acknowledged world leaders and where international firms like L.M. Ericsson have chosen to steadily expand their presence here in Montr‚al. . . .
Right across the spectrum, companies in the BCE family are developing the technologies and services to promote the connectedness objective. For example, Bell Canada and its Stentor partners - using equipment from Nortel, Newbridge and others - are well underway with the investment that will produce the next generation, cross-country multimedia network using a new transmission method called ATM (asynchronous transfer mode). Meanwhile, Nortel's St. Laurent plant - which is to be the centrepiece of the company's $275 million expansion in the Montr‚al area - has produced half the Internet backbone transmission equipment in North America. >>>>
Stentor Alliance:
stentor.ca
[Do "ATM" search]
<<<
Although it's just the first step in Stentor's NAN [National Area Network] construction, the ATM backbone network affords immediate benefits to Canadians. For example, it will permit large corporations running private networks to consolidate all their needs on the public platform. This will create cost savings, more efficient network management and access to higher bandwidth services. It will reduce administration costs as well. . . .
Canada is a world-leader in ATM technology. Newbridge Networks of Kanata is prominent among manufacturers of ATM switching and network management equipment. The MainStreet Xpress 48020 MultiNetwork Service Controller (MNSC) that Newbridge manufactures in association with Siemens of Germany is at the heart of Stentor's ATM backbone.
The MNSC is an important tool in providing management consolidation of multiple networks into a central administration. It strengthens Stentor's ability to provide seamless and consistent services to all customers across the country.
<<<<
<<<
Q.Who provided the ATM technology for national ATM network?
A.The Stentor Alliance's national ATM network uses nine Newbridge 36170 switches, and one Newbridge 36150.
Q.Where are these national switches located?
A.The switches that comprise the national ATM backbone are located in the following major cities: Vancouver, Calgary, Regina, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal, St. John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St. John's.
>>>>
Canadian government and China:
info.ic.gc.ca
<<<
On May 21, the Minister met with representatives from a variety of Canadian companies currently doing business in Chongqing to discuss their successes in the region. Minister Manley's visit attracted representatives from the Bank of Nova Scotia, Newbridge Networks, Ltd, Nortel China, Harris Communications, The Interhealth Canada (China), Sun Life Assurance Company, Davey Building Systems, Comenco Hang Environment Equipment, Degrement Water Treatment, Canada-China Power, Inc., and Panda North American Ventures, Ltd.
>>>
Canadian government and Italy:
info.ic.gc.ca
<<<
"This agreement allows Canada and Italy to build on the privileged links we have already established," concluded Mr. Eggleton. "It means a collaboration of Canadian and Italian industry in developing new telecommunication strategies and services and an exchange of views on policy and regulatory frameworks, and market liberalization. It also means that Canada and Italy can further test the potential of broadband networks, which will be a major part of the Information Highway of tomorrow."
The business delegation accompanying the International Trade Minister includes officials from Glenayre Electronics, Harris Farinon Division (Canada), Newbridge Networks Corp., Nortel Corp., Teleglobe Inc., Corel Corporation, CAE Electronics Ltd. and Canadian Astronautics Ltd.
<<<<
BCTel and NN:
bctel.net
>>>
The new facility is the result of a tripartite arrangement between a NAP administrator, an equipment manufacturer, and a telecommunications carrier. In this case, all three are not merely contributors, but each is a leader in their area of expertise. The administrator is BCnet, the creator of the first internetnetwork in Canada. The manufacturer, is Newbridge Networks Corp., one of the world's leaders in switching technology. And the carrier - who also owns, operates and maintains the new NAP - is BC TEL Advanced Communications, the data-communications division division of BC Telecom which owns and operates British Columbia's primary telephony infrastructure. . . .
Key to the BC NAP implementation, of course, was the ATM switch itself. Newbridge was selected as the source for the equipment because it offered a high speed scalable switch - an elegant ATM solution that couldn't be accomplished with either Frame Relay or circuit switching.
There were other compelling reasons as well. Newbridge has a proven track record and a good presence in the marketplace for tech support and on-going product development. Most importantly they are the leading international vendor of ATM switches with a product that can deliver. As this would be the first Canadian NAP to use an ATM switch, and only the second in North America (the other is San Francisco) - Newbridge went beyond simply product supply for the BC NAP. They demonstrated their expanding commitment in BC by providing the MainStreetXpress at a discounted price, with their people participating extensively in the startup process.
Geoff Cowan, General Manager, Western Canada division of Newbridge says this was, in part, "a business positioning decision. Newbridge has been very supportive of BC's high-speed infrastructure. We're a member of the Research Networking Association [Rnet BC]. British Columbia has been good for us,and has an available talent pool for our expansion." As it happens, Newbridge has recently added some 250 people to its BC presence (headquarters is in Eastern Canada at Kanata, Ontario). The company is currently working by itself and through affiliates on several initiatives including multimedia and telemedicine as well as the new NAP. . . .
The IP-level connectivity is implemented through a border-router interface to the selected Newbridge hardware - a MainStreetXpress 36170 Multiservices Switch.
As the keystone of a Network Access Point, the 36170 supports virtual circuits (permanent and/or soft), with the throughput and high-speed buffers needed for large-scale deployment on a future-proof ATM infrastructure. A sophisticated traffic management scheme called SMART (scalable multi-priority allocation of resources and traffic) provides extensive traffic policing with programmable control of usage parameters. SMART dynamically allocates switching resources within the 36170 based on the state of the node and network under existing traffic conditions.
>>>
Press release for BCTel/NN contract:
bctel.net
<<<
Q: How does IP co-exist with ATM?
BN: This is part of the nethead/bellhead issue. The key is making sure the technologies work and that's what MPOA is all about - multiple protocols over ATM (asynchronous transfer mode). BC TEL has already made a commitment to migrate ATM to MPOA capability. It's a long-term strategy and as we have the largest ATM regional network in British Columbia - 85 switches on sonet concentric OC48 rings - we have become the largest wholesaler of IP in the province - to Internet service providers and the business community.>>>>
British Telecom and MCI. . .
bt.com
October 10, 1996 . . . It is planned to roll out ATM-based solutions in three steps. The first phase of the commercial ATM service between MCI and BT will begin in early 1997. This will follow beta testing later this year, when the two companies extend their national ATM services - BT CellStream and MCI HyperStream ATM - to offer a bilateral transatlantic ATM service.
Specifics on the CellStream offering:
search.bt.com
Later in 1997, the services will be expanded to more countries under the Concert portfolio of global managed services.
The last phase will be for Concert to offer end-to-end ATM services with multiple options for access methods, based on versatile end-user equipment and service gateways. This will enable customers to establish seamless services with higher functionality and service levels.
Stephen Von Rump, MCI's vice president of Enterprise Marketing, said: "Many global companies are looking for ways to transmit multimedia applications on a global basis. In fact, the global ATM market is expected to double and double again in the next several years.
serviceview.bt.com
BT and ATM developments: [Includes the EC James project]
<<<<
BT ELECTRONIC PRICE LIST
Notice: 23/98
CELLSTREAM SPECIAL OFFER
Between 1 September 1998 and 30 November 1998 inclusive, permanent virtual circuits (PVCs) on all 2 Mbit/s access lines will be free of charge. This includes PVCs between 2 Mbit/s Access Class and any other Access Class. International PVCs are excluded.
Where the 2Mbit/s Access Class is installed after 1 September, customers will only be eligible to use the bandwidth free of charge from the date of installation until the end of the offer period.
The Access connection and annual rental charges will remain unaltered.
BT, 13 May 1998
>>>>
Electronic price list:
serviceview.bt.com
Pricing scheme in UK:
serviceview.bt.com
BT's committment to upgrading complete system:
bt.com
BT in China:
bt.com
BT and European Partners:
bt.com
<<<
The new pan-European network will enable the partners and Concert to provide and manage resilient, high-bandwidth ATM and Internet Protocol (IP) services across Europe via a single network.>>>
And from NN's website:
newbridge.com
<<<
BT will be demonstrating an application which was originally developed for the EC JAMES project that implements ETS 300 820.1 to the JAMES profile. It maps the command received from the other service providers into requests and commands to the MainStreetXpress 46020 Network Manager. The application has been licensed commercially to a number of European carriers.
"This NMF Catalyst project demonstrates globally how two European operators, BT and Telecom Italia, and their suppliers have implemented interoperable OSS solutions to support rapid reconfigurable ATM bandwidth connections. These solutions have also been tested with other European operators as part of the recently completed European Union Project James," said Dave Milham, BT's Technical Collaboration Manager for Operations Support Systems (OSS).>>>
ACC and BT:
newbridge.com
MCI/BT/NN:
newbridge.com
<<<
This success follows the recent announcements by MCI strategic partners BT (British Telecom), the Stentor telecommunications service provider companies in Canada, and Telenordia that they, too, had selected the Siemens / Newbridge Alliance ATM solution set.
<<<
USWest and NN:
uswest.com
One of Alan Lutz's stated goals is to push harder into the RBOC, CLEC, and corporate markets. Fortunately his work at CQP will be an advantage.
As for uncovering solid data on NN's contracts, I've only touched the surface. Perhaps others will jump in and add statistics as they can.
Regards,
Pat
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