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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (5299)	6/23/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

I haven't seen this posted yet... Newbridge Networks Corp. (NN) Furman Selz said analyst Michael Neiberg upgraded his rating of NEWBRIDGE NETWORKS to buy from hold, but slightly trimmed future earnings estimates. Neiberg said the upgrade came because the quarter seems off to a good start and he has increased confidence in the new, lower estimates. He also cited the company's new president and chief operating officer Alan Lutz and industry consolidation. Furman's Neiberg gave the stock a 12-month price target of $30 a share, based on 25 times estimated calendar 1999 earnings of $1.25 a share. Neiberg cut fiscal 1999 estimates to $0.85 from $0.90 and fiscal 2000 estimates to $1.35 from $1.40, bringing the estimates in line with consensus expectations. (Reuters 01:36 PM ET 06/23/98)

To: pat mudge who wrote (5299)	6/24/1998 10:12:00 AM
From: Techwatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Pat, thank you for your lengthy response but most of it was citing company sound bites or press releases. Again, I personally take these statements with a grain of salt, and I always try to verify claims with additional sources. I especially have concerns with "multiyear contracts" that claim hundreds of millions of dollars. There is never any guarantee that they ever come to fruition, especially with the frantic pace of technology convergence, company acquisitions and new infrastructure buildouts. As for the JP Morgan numbers...nothing to do with the "official numbers that I like". Those are historic market share numbers that may or may not reflect the current trends. Also, those numbers were not researched from JP Morgan, they are from a market research firm that JP Morgan subscribes to. Is it a credible firm? that is for each individual person to decide. I can show you ATM switch market numbers that have NN losing marketshare (Dataquest 1996 29% NN, 1997 21% NN). Thank you for the Stentor reference of "9 36170's". that is the type of information I am looking for - although I am not sure what you meant by "You'll note the Stentor Alliance has already installed 9 MainStreetXpress 36170s, over half of what you claim were installed world-wide". Stentor is tightly coupled with MCI, but those switches are not part of the 22 I identified. Can you provide details on the related BCTel/NN statement <<<BC TEL has already made a commitment to migrate ATM to MPOA capability. It's a long-term strategy and as we have the largest ATM regional network in British Columbia - 85 switches on sonet concentric OC48 rings - we have become the largest wholesaler of IP in the province - to Internet service providers and the business community.>>>> This is there "long term strategy", what is the time frame for deployment? any deployed yet?. What are the "85 switches"...can I assume 36170's? Obviously it can't be done before NN equipment actually supports OC48 and IP right? Sorry can't accommodate you with your request to "Please provide URLs to document your findings". However, much of this information can be obtained if you have access to services/reports from financial and market research firms. I suggest that you evaluate the services offered by several of these firms to see if you find the information useful/accurate. But again, always use more than one source to validate your findings. Lastly, regarding your statement <<<It's hard to find hard numbers, so I began by looking at ATM customers quarter by quarter. To date there are 260 for the 36170. Even if each customer bought 1 switch, the total would make your numbers absurd. Are you saying these 260 customers are ordering switches and not installing them>>>. Absurd? sure, if the claims are true. I am simply asking where they are installed so that I might verify those claims. Show me the switches! :)