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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ACV who wrote (2872)	6/24/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: Glenn Perry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Instant massive high-speed ISP? Bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth!!! This is what needs to be increased in order for companies to need the performance of equipment like Ampex's DST. The potential merger between AT&T and Tele-Communications could be the missing link. nytimes.com "A merger between AT&T and Tele-Communications would be the biggest sign yet that trying to deliver high-speed access to the Internet and other advanced services *is one of the strongest imperatives in today's business world.* In recent years, the Internet has emerged as a new sort of media that could rival radio and television in its impact on the nation's economy and culture. The technological bottleneck that has kept cyberspace from becoming a true mass media has been the difficulty in transmitting large amounts of digital data to everyday homes. Consumers gain access to the Internet at speeds a mere fraction of those available to people in modern offices. That has kept the process of linking to cyberspace a relatively awkward procedure in some ways akin to using a ham radio. But by acquiring Tele-Communications, which serves 14.4 million customers, AT&T would gain direct access to homes and apartments for the first time since the leading long-distance company spun off its local telephone operations in 1984."

To: ACV who wrote (2872)	6/24/1998 11:12:00 AM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17679

Yes quiet times may be a good contrary indicator but it is also a controversial one. In addition to "thread quiet" also note that trading volume is slipping below average volume. Three chartists (well known in the genre) who have address this issue are Jiler, Schabacker and Warren. The traditional point of view regarding volume and price movements is that during trend movements, volume confirms price movement in that volume expands in the direction of the significant trend and contracts in moves against it. The exceptions are at significant trend reversal points where volume will expand significantly but there is no accompanying price movement. These later situations are taken to mean that a reversal of the trend under study may be imminent. However, what can one do when volume (and by implication low trader / investor interest) just seems to wane? Jiler recognized the situation and was troubled by it. He admitted that he had no explanation. Schabacker worked in the low volume circumstance through a situational context. Here, Schabacker cited that certain bottom formations (ie. rectangles occurring with diminishing volume after long declines) produced longer term low risk reliable patterns. Warren, the long term chartist required the low volume pattern (following the significant) decline as a requirement in his signal engine. To use a metaphor, Warren viewed this circumstance as denoting a new Chapter in an unfolding story. While Warren talked about "sponsors" who withdrew their support or pressure ("to see what would happen") I think that the concept would hold even if one did not postulate such manipulative like sponsorship. I like to look at it in a behavioral context especially in the sense of waves of buying and selling interest and pressures. One requirement of a meaning to evolve out of a low volume signal is situation. Only in the context of a significant prior movement does it make sense to explore this issue. Secondly, the reliability is enhanced by taking a longer termed point of view. Here, this issue is illustrated by the above mentioned "trend under study". Which trend? Often there are several at work at the same time. The longer termed viewpoint (say a weekly perspective in addition to the daily) will average out conflicting and confusing shorter term movements. For some interpretation, I see the low volume as the disappearance of active traders at this level and therefore as a window of view of a morso mean price as, absent market excesses bourne of inefficiencies, prices regress to their mean. In sum, given the current context, the market views Ampex as really truly worth about $2.00/share. Now, the analysis becomes interesting. What is the story of this company, what is the quality of it's management, what are the forecasts for the future of it's products and services? If your answers are in the affirmative, then you can rely on these low volume low interest patterns (in a longer term sense) as being a reliable indicator of a low risk / high reward opportunity. The story and the price pattern are placing the odds on your side. Personally, I would like to see about three to six months of exasperatingly slow movements and diminished volume and interest. Then, if and when the new Chapter begins with increased activity and interest I will know that the odds are now in my favor. Why three to six months? Because then I can be sure that the intervening and cross currents of shorter termed perspectives are not only cancelled out but squeezed out as well. Ed Perry