To: John Mansfield who wrote (19043 ) 6/24/1998 12:15:00 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
You have to admire Sen. Bennett's leadership on this issue. He has taken the ball and run with it despite the early derision he faced from his colleagues. Leadership is the key to mitigating the effects, physical and psychological, of Y2K. There will be problems across the board, some minor, some major. Some will have internal causalities, while others will result from a "cascade" effect from somewhere outside of the direct management of the company. Yardeni has grown used to using the recession resulting from the 1973 Oil Embargo as a model for what will occur in 2000. However, I would like to add that the free flow of both information and energy are symbiotically linked and the disruption of both will exacerbate the impact of Y2K. And when people begin to see the handwriting on the wall, the current inability by gov't officials to prepare the public, will result in a panic and flood of litigation. So corporations will be wracked with major profit disruptions as well as lawsuits, both of which will greatly impact their stock price. And who will be the loser in all this?? The little guy who has been taught to buy and hold and believe that everything is alright. Who will be the winners?? The institutions and smart that distribute their shares to those folks adding to their monthly pension plans. There has been some discussion on limiting claims from Y2K litigation or even declaring a moratorium on lawsuits. This is a contentious issue, but I'm am leaning to a moratorium, so long as it contains a provision for sharing information and resolutions among all of US and global industry. At this moment, the legal experts are more interested in following SEC guidelines to the letter. No more. No less. And that is going to result in American corporations reinventing the wheel as they proceed with their Y2K I&A and remediations. And when the public really finds out the true vulnerabilities of their high-priced Big Cap investment vehicles, the heads will start to roll. Lack of gov't leadership on Y2K further strengthens the prevalent distrust of politicians and corporate America. Small investors will find easy targets amongst the high-powered politicos and money managers for what would appear to be a pattern of negligence and inattentiveness to broader impacts of Y2K. One solution I would like to see is a freeze or limitation on insider selling until there is greater disclosure of Y2K vulnerabilites, both internal and external. That way they will have a vested interest in insuring the compliance of the corporate entity they are charged with protecting, and not "punching out" on their golden parachutes. And for the moment, that is the way I see it. Regards, Ron