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To: Jerry in Omaha who wrote (263)	6/24/1998 2:36:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Jerard, Diamonds book is on my list. The fate of human societies as studied from historical economics is a field which has lost most of its following. It is also very difficult intellectual task. That is to find correlations in the movement of human society. Diamonds work is one of the most serious attempts in recent years. Dr. Ravi Batra using a Hindu scholars work, Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar is another more recent scholar. Proir to that we have Marx, Spengler, and Toynbee. THe cyclical studies of culture, society and economic trends are a type of historical determanism has been given the deepest grave possible by modern economic theories and schools. [Schumpeter is in here somewhere also. It can also be found at the basis for the work of W.D. Gann, Elliot and Fibonacci studies.] Diamonds work I understand is not so much a broad spectrum analysis as a concentration on certain aspects of economic history. One of the basic tenants of these authors is that all socio-economic systems are cyclical and will self-destruct through a built in destructive mechanism. Toynbee felt his work could lay-out the fundamentals for a conscious understanding of this predilection and therefore avert the wholesale downfall of democratic societies, atleast he felt to mitigate the destruction and retain and evolve the most benificial. Unfortunately these cyclical studies are unable to "pin-point" exact fulcrums and therefore in our time they are dismissed summarily. However we are surrounded with cyclical events (the Red Sox will beat the Yankies and win the World Series) that point towards the inherant truth behind these authors instights. Ravi Batra says of China; "Within two decads (book published in 1978) we will see that the Chinese state is the only authoritarian government on earth. But by 2010, China will also evolve from a totiltarian state into a warrior's democracy, and communism will crumble as well." Central to China's entrance into modern economies would be its strength as a producer and monitary leader. Whether they will get there without internal struggle and destruction is to be seen. They may step backwards and present the same temperment as North Korea and be an automic threat. Capitalism as we know it is also expected to evolve and become more benvolent in its growing dissemination and become the succor for the impovershed of the world. Giant leap from where we sit today, but beginning in small ways throughout the world. We maybe watching Japan in one of these Schumpterian destructive stages. But that remains to be seen. What happens in the next few weeks and months in my opinion is very important. Jerard, I hope you continue to "steal time". Chip