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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24652)	6/24/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Do you have a source for historic world-wide monthly crude consumption? eia.doe.gov

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (24652)	6/24/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Chuzzlewit, Although your "argument" may be absolutely correct...and I stress "maybe".... I think you are missing the point. This sector no longer trades on strict fundamentals. I think you will find that the "perceptions"and overall sentiments are having more of an influence. As to your argument, based on consumption..... How do you factor the depletion of reserves since the fiasco of the '80's? Is it not logical to expect more E&P just to replace what has been depleted over the last 10-12 years when exploration ground to a halt? My thoughts for this sector are probably oversimplified...but I feel comfortable with my formula: Buy the suppliers and fabricators...It doesn't matter to FGII...VRC.. what the dayrates are...If DO<RIG<CDG<MDCO<ESV need to repair a rig,or update a part...whether they are getting $60K a day...or $40K...they will still buy it...Of course extreme fluctuations in crude have an effect...but long term I don't see as much of an effect on the earnings of the suppliers. What's FGII's backlog? Unless crude falls to single digits...and exploration grinds to a halt..it's just a question of time. Some on this thread have not been prepared for the time horizon this cycle is taking...but sooner or later the sector will be "favorable" again....I think the suppliers will lead... Just my thoughts Dave