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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3791)	6/24/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 9256

Mark, I was at the IEEE meeting and had much the same impression you had. Will still post my notes later. The DD industry is terrific when it comes to providing value. But most don't get paid for it. The only positive thing Mark Geenan said was that he was positive on the future (the distant future). Mark is founder of TrendFocus. I did a quick search and came up with this April article in which TrendFocus is quoted. Note that the article's title is at loggerheads with the content. theregister.co.uk GM

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3791)	6/24/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark and all, my notes from last night's IEEE talk. I have added no comments or interpretation. GM "Change and Stability in the DD Industry" Mark Geenen, president and founder of TrendFocus. IEEE Magnetics Society meeting June 23.1998 at Santa Clara U. Before the talk an upcoming conference on "20,000 tpi digital servos" was announced. TMRC'98 on heads will be held in Boulder on August 17.-19.1998 Mr Geenen's main bullets were... * how did we get into this mess? * new realities * up from the abyss * conclusions The present state of the DD industry is the worst he has seen. The industry deluded itself with overzelous forecasts and miscalculated demand. Second tier suppliers are rising. Almost billions of dollars worth of excess capacity was built, especially in the component area. 10 million square feet of additional mfg space added last few years. Fujitsu and Samsung doing well. Does Toshiba have staying power? Average head and disk ratios per HDA are about 6 and 3 now, respectively. Will decrease slowly to save cost. Many component suppliers being crippled. Economic factors: PC spending increases more slowly. Asia has not hit bottom. Saw empty construction sites when visiting Malaysia. 81m PCs sold in 1997. Processor performance outstripping users' needs. 80+% of DD cost is materials. slower capacity rise because of lack of killer apps. MR and GMR heads fuel density battle. multimedia/MMX are just buzz - do not add to storage requirements yet. Must now meet same DD capacity with fewer parts. After 2000, DD growth greater than PC growth Gains of cheap PC pressures DD $$ DD demand overwhelmingly PC driven now, at least till 2000. Need: fewer and downsized DD companies, mergers and plant closures. fewer head/disk vendors. Quinta and TeraStor not near term competition Superparamagnetic limits to be stretched holographic storage years away faster rpm for all DDs opportunities abound New applications: home servers 2001-? BW driven after 2000 desktop video 2000-? mass market digital photography 1999 even in 2001 DD mix still mostly PC conclusion: survivors have cash, technology, low cost, speed, scalability, flexibility diversification, vertical integration cost is king, technology close second market at bottom, rise to be slow DD industry will thrive and prosper

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3791)	6/24/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark and GM, Thanks to each of you for your notes. Most valuable to me. As attendees of this presentation, what does this mean to your investment mindset? Feel more or less confident about any of the companies you follow? Thanks again for the postings, Yogi