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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4803)	6/26/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 9980

Zeev your optimistic scenario for Asia I hope is correct. I truly hope so. When Harrison Salisbury said that it would 100 years before the Chinese military influence was be vitiated he was speaking in pre-internet days. Your scenario ref. "...you may be underestimating the power of "global communications". The bamboo curtains cannot prevent the leaking of strange and novel ideas into China..." I hope this also happens for Malaysia and India not to mention Burma and Pakistan. The good people of Asia need some help. Hopefully, the bad people of Asia will be finished off by the "rationalization" of the market place and slink off somewhere to clip coupons with their miliartist cronies. My best to you, ** Meanwhile, India appears to have slipped back to pre-"opening" days of the 70's and 80's with many if not most of the foregn investment banks in deep, deep financial trouble and their presence in the country is in doubt. Prediction: Watch for large withdrawls, in mass from the Indian market, by the foreign investment banks. They will take their funds elsewhere where they can get better returns. This means the collapse of the nascent Indian debt market. And the consequent ruination of any hopes of attracting Indian infrastructure investment. Gone are roads, power plants, municipal improvements, clean water and meaningful public health programs. Prediction #2: With the coming digitization and automation of data entry many sectors of the nascent Indian computer industry will likewise be in trouble. At that, these pesky little Asian insfrastrucure problems like 40% of all the Indian food produced spoiling before it can reach the local market, will make "development" in all Asian countries - beyond the industries that can be viewed as "low hanging fruit" - as immensley difficult and problematic....though not impossible. I personally don't see the growth of the arms industry in Asia as a postive, rather it is part of a large basket of negatives.... in that it tends to distract people from the real problems of clean water, sanitation, disease eradication, development and population control. At that people are at their best when there are challenges and people rise to incredible things when the challenges are greatest. So, don't count Asia out. Just a few teething problems. With best wishes--