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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (24688)	6/24/1998 6:35:00 PM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

marc, hello. For what it's worth, when the '73 oil embargo was put into effect, the USA imported about 10% of the oil it consumed on a daily basis. This number is now above 50%, and continues to grow. THis points up two interesting conclusions; 1. The oil embargo of '73 was largely a question of good press exposure, which made it a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Americans lined up at the pumps and oil executives lined up in Congress. 2. We are in some ways in a much more vulnerable position now if OPEC countries line up and decide to effect another embargo. One thing that argues against this being a real threat is that OPEC is no longer a dominating force they became in '73, and many others are around to sell us oil if need be. Regards, Aggie

To: marc chatman who wrote (24688)	6/25/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

marc, Non-OPEC production has risen significantly since 1973. But note that daily world oil demand has also simultaneously risen from around 50mm bbls/day in 1973 to 72mm bbls/day in 1998- that's a lot of oil in any scenario! Main sources of possible additional Non-OPEC production- some in Venezuela; Colombia (if the guerillas cooperate); Equatorial Guinea; and Norway. Russian Fields need work; Khazakstan and Azerbaijan lack pipeline capacity; China no extra capacity; UK and Ecuador a little bit of extra capacity; Sudan no pipeline for two more years; Yemen some additional capacity IMO. Not a perfect scenario but in producing 72 mm bbls/day worldwide, the market has less slack than what appears at first blush... Sincerely, Doug F.