To: Feraldo who wrote (288 ) 6/24/1998 11:33:00 PM From: Dave Shoe Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2452
>Let's take a small survey. Who here buys >the "Wal-Mart" brand. I don't think I've >ever bought a "Wal-Mart" brand product. Neither have I, but I'm guessing you (as I) probably don't have kids (plural), or work within a tight budget. O.K., too many possible scenarios - forgive my probable error. Still, WalMart is apparently having *some* success with their private label. (I like sceptics on SI threads. They frequently bring critical facts or history to the surface. Reference: LOCK. That LOCK whiner was irritating until s/he turned out to be exactly correct.) I irrationally hated WalMart until the first time I shopped there (years after it arrived. I come from Target land, ya know). Wow. Impressive prices. I figure WalMart has thoroughly tested the product, really likes it's potential for private label, and plans to push it hard for a while. Unser is just the first shot. If sales are lackluster, I suspect WalMart has the contractual ability to exit the TCBG arena. If not, I suspect they could buy TCBG as a joke and rip it to shreds. Also, I'm sure WalMart secured a low contractual price for it's product, so, volume aside, margins will need watching. Hopefully, (rather likely), TCBG did not blink much during negotiations, and margins are satisfactory. Somehow, I see WalMart as being the motivated buyer here. I'm thinking they seriously desired a lower priced (and cooler) alternative to the Kraft/Capri monopoly. If sales are sluggish at WalMart, man, we all got problems. Because WalMart is, IMHO, the ultimate test bed for sales. Failure would be a sign of things to come. Would this hypothetical failure at Walmart indicate a TCBG stock crash? No way (IMHO), not at present levels. Just a significantly limited upside. TCBG seems to be having fun with appropriately timed investor relations right now (e.g.: BizWire). Because TCBG needs to have sufficient imagination to cater to kids' imagination, I see these initial investor contacts as a sign that they may be prepared for the greater challenge of selling to kids. Either that or it's all a publicity scam fronting a fake corporation. I don't fully buy the scam scenario which I protectively cook up in my mind. WalMart, Cheever, Unser, Winn-et-al, no one is crying 'Foul' (e.g.: LOCK scam). This is at LEAST semi-legit. For a buck a share, this looks like a hot slot. Conventional DD info may be limited (as compared to MSFT), but the price reflects this. And only those interested in speculative bargains should participate here. Have fun, and buy in the afternoon. It's cheaper (assuming no BizNews). Go Robby! Shoe.