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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vc21 who wrote (4693)	6/25/1998 1:40:00 AM
From: Pierre-X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 16960

Re: Shopper.com rankings (the erstwhile computerESP) Yes I've seen that many times. What I wasn't able to find however is any description of the methodology they use to compile those numbers. How do they define "most popular"? What 3DFX longs hope it means, of course, is sales. But it seems to me on reflection that aggregating sales data for the dozens of merchants that participate across thousands of products would be a difficult implementation problem. What seems more likely is that the "popularity" measure is merely a hit count sorting. In any case, I've talked to about a dozen retailers of V2 products, including Best Buy, InCOMPetent USA, and Fry's, as well as many small local stores. Some typical answers are: "Sales are so-so." "There was a burst of sales when it came out but things are slowing down now." "Only hard-core gamers buy those." "The boards are very expensive." "Everyone that wanted one already has it." Although there are permabulls here who interpret this type of data as a personal attack, I present this empirical research as a counterpoint that may explain pressure on the share price. I encourage everybody to chat up the local salespeople who, after all, are the front line soldiers in this battle, and let the rest of us know findings. A point in favor of 3DFX is the continued shelf-space domination of V2 boards at all the major retailers that I've visited. Emerging price competition making V2 boards more affordable I see as another point in favor. Fry's had a large supply of Orchid's 12MB board for $250, versus both Diamond and CL boards at $300. My (highly) subjective probabilities for earnings scenarios THIS quarter incorporating all data known to me are: 1. 20% 3DFX significantly exceeds consensus earnings estimates 2. 30% 3DFX exceeds consensus estimates 3. 20% 3DFX results in line with estimates 4. 20% 3DFX slightly misses 5. 10% 3DFX misses badly Comments?