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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20802)	6/25/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Whichever scenario happens, if AMAT hits 60 later this year, I will short the industry with every penny I have. << I wouldn't make a claim like that if I were you.... I don't think AMAT will hit 60 this year either, but if it does it will be because some third scenario happens. Suppose Windows 98 exceeds all expectations because people don't want to be a generation behind and therefore forced to upgrade to NT-lite in 2000 or so, which causes PC sales to take off? Suppose China holds the line on the yuan, which makes all the emerging capitalists rich in yen terms and causes them to decide to get wired, or suppose China decides to spend the money it would use to support the yuan and HK dollar on a massive electronic infrastructure project in order to stimulate the domestic economy? (Heck, suppose someone discovers that an AMAT dielectric deposition system is ideally suited to making a Viagra-delivery patch. :-)) I repeat, I don't expect either of these scenarios either, but Murphy's Law says one of them will happen as soon as you vow to short the entire industry at 60. Katherine

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20802)	6/25/1998 3:14:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I'm not saying AMAT will hit 60 this year. I'm just saying let's be humble and wait for the Market to decide by Dec 31. <g> My estimate, made in March, was 45. GM

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (20802)	6/25/1998 4:28:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Re: "Whichever scenario happens, if AMAT hits 60 later this year, I will short the industry with every penny I have." If you're going to short this industry during a period of strong positive momentum, you'd better do it against the box. Otherwise you could lose everything. It's just not that predictable.