Gregg, Re..."The CDMA Development Group Tuesday announced that cdmaOne networks now serve more than 12 million subscribers worldwide. The total puts cdmaOne on track to reach 18 million subscribers by year-end 1998, making the technology the fastest-growing wireless standard in history"
Don't you think that somewhat conservative?
Dec 1994 = 500
Dec 1995 = 10,000
Dec 1996 = 1,000,000
Dec 1997 = 7,314,159
June 1998 = 12,000,000
Dec 1998 = 23,141,593 [my pick]
June 1999 = 40,000,000
Dec 1999 = 70,000,000
Tom, have you got your mathematics onto it?
As you say Gregg, the devil is in the details. Until Jan 1997, there was really only Korea. Then during 1997, Sprint, Primeco and others built out across the USA, which is now fairly reasonably covered. So now, for the first time, there is a very big cellphone using place which has general cdmaOne cover. Analog users will convert on price, quality, phone size, etc. They'll replace their handset when the battery dies, even if they aren't prepared to just biff it out while working.
When they replace their analog handset, what will they choose? Surely it will be cdmaOne. Especially with the cheap Korean handsets starting to flood in. Looking at the growth of analog between 1994 and 1996 which will be the handsets coming up for replacement now by the truckful, there were multi-millions of them. About 40 million or so.
The limit will be production capacity of handsets. Consider the rate of uptake in Korea. Although it was a national plan, it was still really rapid. Japan is coming on stream = a nation of crazy cellphone, PHS, and overcharged per minute wealthy people. 130 million people, nearly all of whom are potential cellphone customers since their age profile and wealth profile excludes few. Which already has 25% or so mobile users.
Japanese like small handsets. I guess Sony will make them! And Kyocera. Others too.
I have in my hand a Kyocera PHS phone 128mm x 18mm x 40mm
which was dumped for being too big! I turn it on, it says "Beeeep" and prints "Welcome" on the screen. I turn it off, it writes "GOOD LUCK!" as it turns off.
I now have in my hand a QCP820 144mm x 38mm x 51mm. Which I haven't figured out how to connect yet! It weighs heaps more too.
Now, my older Nokia analog beast: 168mm x 35mm x 57mm, which can also be used as a defensive club. Due to be decommissioned as soon as I can get my QCP820 and cdmaOne network going.
My point is that unlike refrigerators, cars or computers, cellphones turn over quickly due to obsolescence, although still functional. As the price and quality continue to improve, turnover will happen even faster.
So, won't the USA very quickly swing over to cdmaOne? With some GSM and TDMA as niche products - those dwindling as coverage and price increasingly favors cdmaOne. Japan will do the same, starting about now, but without the TDMA and GSM options. China is a couple of years away yet, but they'll change quickly [Al's pal Bill C. will be talking cdmaOne as I write!]
Of the 50 million analogs in the USA, won't about 10 million of them want to go to cdmaOne this year? If not more. There are now 12 million cdmaOne subscribers, so another 10 million makes 22million. Plus some more for Korea, not to mention Japan, a few extra in China, Peru, Singapore, etc etc etc. Bingo, 23.141593m by year end.
I'd say more, but I don't think they'll be able to increase production fast enough, so the price will be high. So profits will be high. So Qualcomm will be high. So I'll be high!
Mqurice |
