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To: Berney who wrote (3138)	6/26/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 11051

Berney; RE:" Raw Materials " We've both been watching aluminium - they moved today; on their weekly charts: AA - Hammer, AL & RLM - Morning Stars, KLU - Star. At the same time, FPP.X - Forest & Paper Products moved up strongly today, about +2% and CL98Q/CL98Z - Crude Oil Futures have two weeks of inverted Doji Hammers. Commodities making some noise here, Berney, like they want to push up prices for awhile. Lord knows they're all over-sold. Note the recent strength in CYC.X - Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index. Perhaps some MM portfolio rotation (?) or just another blip in a dismal devaluation of raw materials ?? Very interesting reading your essay on GM, Berney. BTW, are you using a trailing STOP on your PUT ? T and the BabyBells are part of the PNX.X index. Their charts are interesting this week, from a candlestick perspective. The move from TUE (bullish up) to WED (gap-bearish down) is called a Kicking candlestick pattern (no doubt from martial arts). The interpretation is that sentiment has abruptly changed, and momentum will continue in the direction of the "kick" for awhile. Phone companies are fun to trade, especially if you track them all over the world. TBR is a big options vehicle; it made a nice Hammer today. Well man, the two inverted Dojis THURS/FRI on top of the XMI.X Major Market Index are kinda scary-lookin'. Could be we just need to correct/piddle around a bit after bustin' up, before takin' off again on another leg up. If the BKX.X + XBD.X Banks & Brokers had not been strong this week, I would have written the whole thing off as a Ms.Softie Win98 bounce. -Steve

To: Berney who wrote (3138)	6/27/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Berney; RE:" Growth -vs- Value Convergence : Divergence " Yes, my EMAIL is sfs73@ibm.net (mobile) or shelton@onramp.net (ISDN) I'm so fixated on the sector indices now that I don't usually trade in some component, like BEL = PNX.X, unless the sector index is showing the same chart indication. Most sectors are homogenous in the sense that the top 20% capitalization components account for the majority of the sector's movement therein. Part of this bias on my part comes from my tendency to watch indices real-time intra-day, timing orders in the component I'm watching by the intra-day candlesticks. I like the idea and your clever use of intra-day stochastics, but I'm hooked on those real-time graphics. Before I had this, I used to trade INTC by looking at the NASDAQ chart of the NDX.X - now I use the SOX.X The SOX.X is clearly dominated by INTC; CEX.X chemicals by DD; RLX.X retail by WMT. I don't like trading against these locomotives. BEL is tracking T very closely since Wednesday; BLS and SBC less so; the sector index PNX.X is still in sync with T. So I came across a couple of interesting indices that I had not looked closely at before: SGX.X S&P Growth Index* and SVX.X S&P Value Index cboe.com:80/index/barra/ These indices are artifacts of the S&P-500, one representing a measure of value and the other one growth. It's interesting to plot them against one another and look at their convergence : divergence. A similar effect can be observed by plotting the OEX.X (" growth ") -vs- the DJIA-30 (" value ") ...that is to say, the relative convergence : divergence of the OEX -vs- DJX looks just like SGX -vs- SVX. I know that you like to read MACD, (and you be the value master, dude) so I thought you might be interested in SGX.X and SVX.X Your recent use of the trailing STOP has caused me to re-examine my own trading style, Berney. SPY and DIA move with the futures rather than the raw indices, and it's easy to get whipsawed with tight STOPs on them. They're not good day-trading vehicles without massive positions for fractional movements, which tends to be machine-like in discipline. I always associated the trailing STOP with momentum rather than position - and my work with candlesticks has helped me judge changes in "sentiment" better, but my feeling for "extent" is not as good as it used to be. Perhaps I should go to weekly charts, and ride my moto more (^_^) -Steve