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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6048)	6/27/1998 12:56:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, It appears that Sumitomo and Long Term are in some sort of discussions. Also the following from SCMP. I would love the benefit of your observations on this interview. Is he just whistling as he walks past the graveyard? Is there a hint of a threat to call in the paper in his comments? Best, Stitch reprinted from South China Morning Post for personal use only. Japan able to rescue itself, says 'Mr Yen' No help required: Eisuke Sakakibara BENJAMIN FULFORD in Tokyo Japan would use its vast reserves to rescue itself from economic turmoil, the senior finance official known as "Mr Yen" said yesterday. "I cannot completely rule out the possibility that Japan and Asia are caught in a downward spiral," Vice-Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara said. "Japan is the world's largest creditor nation," he said. "We do not need help from other countries. "We can use our own strength and our own money to revive Japan." Mr Sakakibara made the comments as the yen recovered slightly in Asian trading. News that the Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan was merging with Sumitomo Trust and Banking breathed some confidence into trading. The yen climbed to a high of 141.75 against the US dollar before easing in late trading. The merger gave hope that the Government was committed to a widescale reform of the indebted banking system. Mr Sakakibara said Japan gave Beijing "a lot of credit" for promising not to devalue the yuan. In return, Japan was doing its utmost to stop the yen from falling, he said. He cited recent joint intervention in foreign exchange markets and promised to "resolve the bad debt issue as quickly as possible and revitalise the Japanese economy". Mr Sakakibara dismissed the danger of capital flight out of Japan, saying once the yen weakened to a certain level, "there will be a flow of investment into Japan from overseas". The Vice-Minister also warned against "excessive pessimism". He repeatedly emphasised Japan was different from other Asian countries because it was a net lender, not a net borrower. "The world's largest debtor country is the US. If you remind yourselves of that fact, you will realise it is not logical to be too pessimistic about Japan," he said. "Japan has to become an engine for the rest of Asia," he said, suggesting public works, not tax cuts, would be the way it further stimulated its own economy. Although Japan was working on tax reform, he said: "We have no intention of promising a permanent tax cut.'

To: Jess Beltz who wrote (6048)	7/24/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jess, where are you now that we need another round of Japan-bashing? At this point, I really am starting to think the recovery in this sector is going to be "Plan B", that is, more and more ownership of chip co's by Western investors. There will be elections in Japan in a year, and I would predict an historical ouster of the LDP at that time. In the interim, it looks like business as usual. On the idiot analysts front, First Boston initiated coverage on five or six leading semi equipment companies today. They are simply guessing at the timing of the recovery -- remember all the "buy" ratings in the spring of '98? More and more chipmakers are stating plans to pull in their equipment-buying horns. Nobody is jumping on copper or 300mm. Although the transition to lower line-widths continues, the chip industry is so overbuilt right now, as a whole, that the dollar volume of equipment sold is going to continue its decline for the forseeable future. I'm glad AMD and MOT are starting to "team up" so that we will only have to see one major bankruptcy in the industry. Talk about two companies with no idea of how to show a profit. MOT shot itself in the foot again this week, and lower-price CPU manufacturing is rapidly approaching the DRAM model of volume loss.